With regard to the expected counter-offensive by Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing increasing pressure from his own allies.
According to analyzes by Western experts, Ukrainian troops have now advanced on the bank of the Dnipro River, which was previously controlled by Russian occupiers, in the partially liberated Cherson region. According to the US Institute for War Studies (ISW), published geodata and texts by Russian military bloggers show that the Ukrainian armed forces have taken positions on the left or east bank in the Kherson region. However, the extent and goals of Kiev’s successes in the Ukraine war, which were recorded in this way for the first time, are unclear.
During a Ukrainian offensive in the fall, the Russian military had completely withdrawn from the region’s capital, Cherson, and parts of the region from the west bank of the Dnipro. The aim was to prevent the Ukrainian troops from advancing to the other side of the river.
War in Ukraine: Kremlin lost control of region
The new development would indicate a loss of control by Russian units in the region. Accordingly, the Russian occupiers could only concentrate on cities. Citing Russian bloggers, who also repeatedly criticize their own military, the ISW experts already see solid supply lines to the positions of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Ukrainian military initially did not want to deny or confirm the ISW information. “The very hard work continues,” said a spokeswoman. The situation on the huge river is complicated. Such operations do not need “information noise”, but quiet. She advised the ISW experts to “be patient”.
Ukraine had always declared that it wanted to liberate all areas occupied by Russian troops. If the region were conquered from the Cherson region, the path would be clear for the Ukrainian army to the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia.
The experts at the ISW also assume that the Russian military will not get through to Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin with recommendations to concentrate on defending positions. Instead of concentrating on gathering forces against the background of the planned large-scale Ukrainian offensive, there have been frequent attacks that have resulted in losses and hardly any territorial gains, it said.
“The continued insistence on Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine suggests that the group seeking to freeze the war along the current front lines has not fully convinced Putin of their point of view,” the analysis said.
The ISW experts suspect that this is one of the reasons why the Defense Ministry in Moscow has repeatedly come to terms with the head of the Russian private army, Wagner, in order to use him to get to Putin. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is considered a close confidante of Putin – and a man of open words.
Kremlin to turn invasion of Ukraine into defensive operation
The ISW said the Russian military leadership is likely trying to “convince Putin of the reality of war” and persuade him to “turn to defensive operations.” The ISW also referred to statements by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who said on April 21 that Russia had to “enshrine itself in such a way that it is only possible with the enemy’s claws, [die russischen Streitkräfte aus ihren Stellungen] to rip out”.
The analysis goes on to say: “Prigozhin’s calls for strengthening Russian defenses in the Occupied Territories and his frequent discussions of the prospects for Ukrainian counterattacks are noteworthy as they indicate that he is attempting to provoke a discussion among Russian leaders.”
The ISW noted that Russian forces are resorting to conscripts to defend Crimea and “may plan to prepare other resources to ensure Russia can maintain some lines when the potential Ukrainian counteroffensive reaches its peak.”
Ukraine’s military has said in the past that the peninsula is “already a battlefield” despite being well behind enemy lines to the south. (skr/dpa)