Iran, Russia and Turkey share mistrust of the West. They can and want to benefit from each other. This is dangerous for the Kurds, Syrians and Ukrainians.
When US President Joe Biden was traveling in the Middle East a few days ago, he emphasized that he did not want to leave the region to Russia and China. An answer followed promptly: Vladimir Putin is now practically following him. The visit to Iran is his second overseas visit since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a demonstration to the West: I still have influence in the region and partners I can count on.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is also involved. Iran, Russia, Turkey: The three powers of influence in Syria have been working closely together for years, negotiating Syria’s future in the Astana format. But they have even more in common: their distrust of the West. Western sanctions are now hitting both Russia and Iran. The war in Ukraine also has the potential to bring these states closer together.
As a NATO member, Turkey has a special role in the trio. President Erdoğan has his own agenda: he wants to convince the two influential powers to invade northern Syria. He wants to expel the Kurdish militia YPG that rules there and resettle Syrian refugees in Turkey. For this he needs above all Russia’s OK, Moscow supports the Syrian government in Damascus. Erdoğan’s chances are not bad. Above all, Putin needs partners who will help him out of his isolation, give him a stage and welcome him. He has enough enemies.
The Ukraine war is also on the agenda. The US fears that Russia may have ordered combat drones from the Iranians. The attacks on facilities in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates show the damage that Iranian drone technology can cause. So the summit meeting in Tehran does not bode well: neither for the Kurds nor for the Syrians, nor for the Ukrainians.