Putin and Erdogan: A Pragmatic Relationship

The relationship between the presidents of Russia and Turkey is ambivalent. There have often been violent arguments, sometimes they pull together. The joint trip to Iran is likely to have concrete strategic reasons.

At the summit in Iran, the two presidents of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, meet for the first time since the beginning of the Ukraine war. Many consider Erdogan to be a good friend of Putin. But he is not. The two tend to have a more pragmatic relationship with ups and downs.

Ice age after jet launch

In 2015, for example, there was a little ice age between the two after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet on the Syrian border. Putin punished Turkey at the time. For example, she was no longer allowed to export certain goods to his country. Holiday flights to Turkey were banned for half a year.

He also attacked his counterpart directly: He is said to have bought oil from the terrorist militia IS, and he and his family would benefit from it. Erdogan was outraged: “Russia has to provide evidence for its claim. Otherwise it is and remains an insinuation. If that is proven, I will resign. But the real question is: Is Mr. Putin ready to resign if Russia cannot provide any evidence? “

Apologies from Erdogan

Neither of them resigned. But Erdogan apologized to Putin in the summer of 2016 for the downing. Shortly thereafter, the Russian acknowledged this. He condemned the attempted coup in Turkey very clearly – in contrast to Western heads of state, who reacted cautiously.

Half a year later, the mood threatened to change again. A Turkish police officer shot the Russian ambassador in Ankara in front of cameras. Erdogan did not attack this time, on the contrary, he showed solidarity and spoke of an attack on Turkey: “In conversations with Mr. Putin after the incident, we agreed that it was a provocation and that there was no conflict here.”

Relations between the two remain fragile. When it comes to Syria, where both are active on different sides, sentences like: “I asked Mr. Putin what Russia was doing in Syria. If you want to set up military bases there, then do it! But don’t put us in the way!”

Common projects

The two finally come to terms, as they did in Libya and also in the conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Relations are now good, for example they are building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant together.

Erdogan even bought a missile defense system from Russia – an affront to the other NATO partners. Experts have long assumed that Putin wants to detach Turkey from NATO. Russia expert Hakan Aksay doesn’t believe in this theory: “Putin wants to take advantage of Turkey on the one hand and weaken and polarize NATO and the western camp on the other from within. That should strengthen Russia’s position overall and Putin’s role domestically. But I doubt that that Russia also wants to tie Turkey closer to itself.”

Similarities are “sometimes bigger, sometimes smaller”

He may not even be able to bind her to himself. After all, at the end of June Erdoğan gave his general approval – albeit after a long tug-of-war – for Sweden and Finland to join NATO, which cannot be in Russia’s interest. There are also Ankara’s drone deliveries for Ukraine.

Former Turkish general Ahmet Yavuz describes the relationship between the two countries as follows: “The interests of Turkey and Russia never completely coincide. You have to imagine it as two circles that partially overlap. The common interests are sometimes larger, sometimes smaller. “

Erdogan wants to be a mediator

The intersections are currently rather small. This also became clear in Erdogan’s statement at the beginning of the war of aggression against Ukraine in February. “Let me say that Russia’s military intervention on Ukrainian soil from the early hours of this morning is unacceptable and we condemn it.”

This clear stance pleasantly surprised many in the West. Even so, Erdogan is not slamming the door to Russia. He’s a pragmatist. This quality could also help him in Tehran. As for northern Syria, he wants Putin’s approval for another offensive. And in the Ukraine war he is still trying to position himself as a mediator – most recently through talks in Istanbul about a grain corridor. A Turkish journalist close to the government even sees Erdogan as the most important man who can negotiate peace with Putin.