Status: 02.12.2022 2:50 p.m
The number of old people in Germany continues to grow. In a good ten years, the number of pensioners will increase significantly. This is the result of expert calculations that look into the year 2070.
In the coming decades, an increasingly aging society will live in Germany. The Federal Statistical Office comes to this forecast in its so-called coordinated population projection, which is based on the assessments of a group of experts.
The future models of the calculation are based on the population figures as of December 31, 2021 and contain several scenarios with different developments, for example the birth rate or immigration to Germany.
Average age has already increased
Some of the forecasts by the Federal Statistical Office extend over 50 years up to the year 2070. At the end of last year, around 83.2 million people lived in Germany. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the average age of the population was 45 years. For comparison: In 1990, the nationwide average age was still 39 years. At that time, the so-called baby boom generation between the ages of 20 and 35 formed the largest population group. Baby boomers refer to the baby boomers born between 1955 and 1970.
Even today, the baby boomers form the largest age group in the population, meanwhile “of older working age”. From the mid-2030s, these cohorts will then move up to the age group of 80 and over, according to the forecast. The forecast also assumes that at least 20 million people in Germany will be 67 years or older by this time – around four million more than at present. In the period between 1990 and 2021, the number of people aged 70 and over living in Germany rose from 8.0 million to 13.5 million.
From the mid-2030s, the number of residents aged 80 and over who are considered to be very old will continue to increase: In the 2050s and 2060s, it could rise from the current six million to seven to ten million people.
Western federal states and city states particularly affected
The western German non-city states and the city states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen will be particularly affected by the aging process. Currently, 19 percent of the people living in western Germany are aged 67 or older. By 2040, this share could increase by up to 35 percent and then stabilize. In the city-states, the number of senior citizens will be up to 24 percent higher in 2040 compared to now. By 2070, the number could have increased by as much as 65 percent. Currently, 17 percent of the residents in the city states are aged 67 or over.
In the eastern German non-city states, around 24 percent of the population is already 67 years of age or older. A further increase of ten to 17 percent is expected here.
Life expectancy will probably continue to increase
Experts believe that one reason for the ever-increasing proportion of older people in the overall German population is the life expectancy, which has been rising continuously for decades. For the future, too, the forecast assumes that life expectancy will probably increase, thanks to improved living conditions, declining tobacco and alcohol consumption and medical advances.
Currently, the average life expectancy at birth for a woman is 83.38 years. For men it is 78.54 years. Based on various scenarios, these average values could be between 86.1 years and 90.1 years for women and between 82.6 and 86.4 years for men in 2070.
Declining number of employed persons
Despite the increasing age of society, the number of people of working age between 20 and 66 in Germany is in danger of falling. There are currently 51.4 million people in this age group nationwide. Decisive factors in future development include the birth rate and the immigration of workers from abroad.
The projection scenarios come to the conclusion that even with high net immigration by the mid-2030s, the number of people potentially employed will fall by at least 1.6 million. With low net immigration, the number could drop by 4.8 million people. A shrinking and then stagnating population of working age is to be expected in the non-city states in western Germany. Experts believe that in the eastern German federal states, the number will definitely decrease.
Shrinking or growing population?
According to the experts’ models, the total population in Germany could also decrease significantly in the future. Here, too, immigration is a decisive criterion. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the number of inhabitants increased by around one million to more than 84 million this year alone, mainly due to immigration as a result of the Ukraine war.
With a moderate development in birth rates and life expectancy as well as moderate net immigration from next year averaging around 290,000 people per year, the population would increase to 85 million people by 2031 and then fall to 83 million by 2070.
If net immigration is lower – at around 180,000 people per year according to the projection – the population would drop to 75 million people in 2070. With a permanently high migration balance of 400,000 on average, however, it could also increase to 90 million.