Production expectations for 2035: According to the study, e-fuels are not enough for Germany

In the dispute over the end of combustion engines, many hopes rest on e-fuels. However, an analysis by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research shows that German demand could not be met in 2035.

The German demand for e-fuels will not be covered in 2035. This emerges from an analysis by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ARD magazine FACT available exclusively. The paper throws a new perspective into the debate about synthetically produced fuel for internal combustion engines in passenger cars.

“We have found that it is very likely that the e-fuels that we will have available globally in 2035 will not be sufficient to cover the indispensable demands in Germany,” explains Falko Ueckerdt from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “By indispensable inquiries I mean in air traffic, in shipping and in the chemical industry.” The high energy densities required in these areas could not be electrified.

According to the analysis, in 2019 these applications accounted for around 40 percent of the total demand for liquid hydrocarbons in Germany. Due to the corona pandemic, there are no figures from previous years. This calculation does not take into account that air traffic could still increase.

“There is nothing left for cars”

So far, 60 industrial production plants have been announced worldwide by 2035, as the fact paper shows. First finding: Of all the investments announced, only one percent made a decision about financing.

Another important finding: If one assumes that all of these projects are financed and built, then this entire global supply could cover around ten percent of German demand in the indispensable e-fuel applications. So if other countries also want a piece of the e-fuel cake, it won’t be enough for Germany. According to the expert, synthetic fuels will be needed. But: “There is nothing left for cars.”

Even the best-case scenario is not enough

So far, e-fuels, which are to be converted into synthetic hydrocarbons based on wind or solar energy, have not yet been produced commercially. So far there have been few research and pilot plants. One of the largest is in Chile. Just seven tank fillings for small cars are currently produced there every day. These 350 liters currently cost 17,500 euros.

But the development is ongoing. In the future, e-fuels could become cheaper than normal fuel, according to expert Ueckerdt. In their analysis, the researchers also ran through a scenario in which they assumed that e-fuels would develop in a similar way to photovoltaics – which has so far been the growth champion of 40 to 70 percent per year when it comes to energy technologies. But even then it would only be enough for half of the indispensable demand.

Clientele and lobby policy of the FDP?

This analysis meets a current debate: The EU wants to decide that from 2035 no more combustion engines will be allowed. Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP) wants to prevent this and threatens to veto Germany in Brussels. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) recently called on the EU Commission to submit a proposal that would allow synthetic fuels to be used in cars after 2035. This is exactly what the FDP has anchored in the coalition agreement of the traffic light government.

Doris Fuchs from the Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster sees the reason for this insistence on the agreement, on the one hand, that the FDP is still very close to the car industry. “On the other hand, I think she understood that she was reaching two population groups here,” says the Professor of International Relations and Sustainable Development. On the one hand, that is the normal FDP clientele, such as “the Porsche driver”. But it is also about the people with less money. “Perhaps those who live in the country and are wondering how mobility will be possible for them in the future.”