analysis
War in Ukraine
Deep State Map – pro-Ukrainian activists draw devastating conclusions about summer offensive
An old Grad thrower from Ukraine
© Ignacio Marin/ / Picture Alliance
The Deep State Map group is firmly on Kiev’s side. This makes their analysis of the summer offensive all the more frightening. They do not believe in a quick lightning victory, but in a war that will last far longer than 2024.
“Deep State Map UA” is best known for the interactive map of the same name, which the group uses to document the combat operations of the war. There is also a “large” Telegram channel, which has been accompanied by a smaller English-language channel for some time. On both channels, the pro-Ukrainian group has an analysis of the Kievs Summer offensive published, the results are sobering. The group’s war map is also pro-Ukrainian, but tends to be conservative. Deep State Map doesn’t tend to immediately follow every cheer report.
Advance south of Bakhmut
The analysis goes through the different objectives and sections. First it’s about the Bakhmut front. The city fell into Russian hands at the beginning of the year and was completely destroyed. The stated goal was to encircle Bakhmut, according to the post. The attack from two pincers north and south of the city was intended to cut off the Russians in the desert. The verdict: “Contrary to media claims, Bakhmut is not surrounded.” The northern offensive wedge remained in place after initial successes. “The initiative there has now even passed to the enemy side.” In the south, the heights in front of the town of Klischchiivka were first conquered, then the Russians were able to be driven out of the towns of Andriivka and Klischchiivka. Both are small settlements, of which only rubble and a few cellars remain. In principle, the Ukrainian armed forces can advance in the direction of the TO513 highway because of the geographical location, but are then stuck in the valley between Klishchiyivka and the highway.
Attack at Vremivka exhausted
Then we go to the Russian front bump south of Vremivka. The Russian front’s lead was eliminated. There were heavy casualties here at the start of the offensive when the Ukrainians attacked in “Guderian style,” according to the analysis. “Due to the errors from June 5th to 7th, any further offensive actions were extremely difficult.” The Russians managed to neutralize the threat here.
Success at Robotyne
Then comes the post about the most important part of the offensive operation, the attempt to break out of the Mala Tokmachka area south towards the Black Sea. Deep State Map emphasizes the initial shock caused by the loss of the Western Leopard 2 and Bradley tanks. “The hope of a blitzkrieg was in vain.”
The analysis sees limited success. “Robotyne came under our control, but we have so far failed to expand it or drive the wedge deeper by taking Werbowe and Kopani.” As long as the Russians hold the towns of Verbowe and Kopani, the Ukrainian breakthrough is too narrow to go any further. Ukrainian troops are currently trying to gain a foothold in Werbowe.
Infantry bears the burden of fighting
The conclusion is sober. Deep State Map positively assesses the superiority of the Ukrainian infantry in equal battles. “Where there was a lack of reconnaissance and artillery, the quality of the infantry made up for the situation.” It should be noted that the Red Army was also said to have had to compensate for other mistakes with the toughness and willingness to sacrifice of the infantrymen. Additionally, the analysis recognizes that the Robotyne lead has “potential.” But points out that the Russians are quickly building new fortifications here.
The post ends: “This summer has shown that the war will not end on our terms in 2024. Ukraine must prepare for new challenges that it will soon have to face.”
outlook
It’s a sobering summary of pro-Ukraine activists. However, it is important to note that such groups generally do not skimp on criticizing their own government. The Kremlin also often shows no mercy to pro-Russian bloggers. The analysis of “Deep State Map” measures successes based on the goals and hopes that existed before the offensive. The activists don’t take the easy route of setting much smaller targets later to make the operations look successful.
Even in internationally recognized media, the balance is currently rather negative. The New York Times pointed out that in 2023 Russia would reoccupy more territory than Ukraine could liberate. The mud season is just around the corner in Ukraine. Even then, battles based on small groups of infantry can continue, but a large-scale operation is then impossible. The time period in which Kiev can make Robotyne’s small slump “bloom” is shrinking every day. There is actually no longer a realistic chance of liberating the city of Tokmak in 2023.
Deep State Map rightly points out that the war cannot be won any time soon. If this form of war of attrition continues for more years, it will be crucial which side can compensate for the losses in men and material. When it comes to soldiers, Russia, which is much larger, has an advantage from the start. Kiev is also faced with the problem that many men have left the country to avoid military service. In the EU countries alone there are said to be almost 700,000 men. As far as war material is concerned, both Russia and Kiev’s supporters will not be able to replace losses from old supplies forever. In the long run, the decisive factor will be which side can build up strong new production of war material.
Source: Deep State Map1, Deep State Map 2