Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin had announced his withdrawal from Bakhmut. A Russia expert considers the oligarch “desperate”.
Kiev/Moscow – After the internal conflict between the head of the “Wagner” mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Ministry of Defense had apparently calmed down in the spring, it has now escalated dramatically. In a video message, Putin’s cook publicly attacked the Kremlin and blamed Moscow for the deaths of numerous “Wagner” mercenaries in Bakhmut. The situation boiled over again after the oligarch was promised delivery of the missing ammunition.
Nevertheless, relations between Prigozhin and Moscow remain tense. The behavior of Putin’s cook remains unpredictable. The renowned Russia expert and historian Mark Galeotti sees Prigozhin’s actions as a simple diversionary maneuver from an imminent defeat in Bakhmut. In conversation with Kyiv Independent the expert described the “Wagner” boss only as “a shadow of himself.”
Ukraine war: Russia expert considers Prigozhin’s threat a “bluff”
Galeotti doubts that Prigozhin will be able to carry out his threats. “If he were to withdraw from Bachmut, it would be catastrophic for him, it would be a betrayal,” he explains. Although the restaurant mogul is usually true to his word, it’s hard to imagine that he could live with the consequences of retiring. “I’d be surprised if he survived that. I don’t necessarily mean physically, but he has so many enemies who would happily bring him down once he ran out of protection,” says Galeotti.
Galeotti does not believe that there is a politically motivated reason for taking Prigozhin and his troops out of the game. Rather, the “Wagner” troops drew the sad fate of having to crush the Ukrainian armed forces in Bakhmut at the expense of their own well-being. The bottom line is that they want to win over Bachmut, “and if you can achieve that by wearing Wagner down and, above all, using up his stock of convicted soldiers, then that’s not a bad thing,” says the British expert.
Rather, Galeotti considers Prigozchin’s messages to be a “bluff” to distract from the lack of success in eastern Ukraine. The accusation that the Russian leadership withheld ammunition from the “Wagner” group in the battle for Bakhmut is unbelievable in view of how closely they worked with the Russian airborne troops: “It would be difficult to withhold ammunition from one person and the other others don’t.”
Putin as mediator between Prigozhin and the Defense Ministry
Galeotti sees Prigozhin’s appearances as an expression of “desperation.” The video messages from Putin’s cook are the only way to seek a direct line to the Kremlin since Putin himself cut his lines of communication to the “Wagner” boss. It can also be assumed that the Russian President saw the videos of his old friend – but so far there has been no direct reaction.
The friendship between Putin and Prigozhin
Putin and Prigozhin have known each other for a long time. During his time as a KGB officer in the St. Petersburg city government, the Russian president is said to have frequented Prigozhin’s restaurant. That is why the businessman, who became wealthy in Russia in the 1990s and was even imprisoned for theft, is also known as “Putin’s cook”.
According to Galeotti, it is unlikely that President Vladimir Putin will make public contact with Prigozhin. He would work more as a background mediator between his old friend and the Department of Defense. “If there is either a statement from the Department of Defense, […] or a statement from Prigozhin saying that everything is now settled, but it is not clear what exactly is going to happen, then we know that Putin basically read the riot act to one side or the other,” he said Russia expert.
The tension between Prigozhin and Russia’s military echelon will probably only be resolved once the fighting over Bakhmut has ended. Even after US secret documents revealed that the oligarch’s public attacks had “frustrated” the Kremlin, more harsh video messages from Prigozhin are to be expected. (aa)