“This is the first time that I have seen this in 20 years,” comments Thomas Lefebvre, the scientific director of Meilleur Agents. The digital platform specializing in real estate presented this Tuesday a study on new trends for the real estate market, with the climax of this news: while prices are increasing almost everywhere in Ile-de-France, they are falling in Paris.
This drop is only 1.5% over 12 months (against 4.9% increase in France) but this divergence between Paris and its surroundings is “unprecedented” in the 21st century according to the scientific director. The prices in Paris do indeed drop very rarely. They had fallen in 2008 and 2011, points out Thomas Lefebvre, but it was then the whole of the Paris region that had experienced the same movement.
Reverse balance of power
Without seeing a “rural exodus”, the various confinements have, however, had an impact on the purchasing decisions of buyers, who have turned to the peri-urban rather than the large metropolises. And to a lesser extent, second homes. The greater Parisian suburbs thus saw their prices increase by 8.3% between March 2020 and August 2021, while the inner suburbs increased by 5.3%.
Sales “at price”, that is to say without negotiations, are moreover proportionally more numerous in the outer suburbs than in Paris in the third quarter of 2021 (36% of sales in the outer suburbs were made at the price, compared to 31 % in Paris), while they were proportionally less numerous in the first quarter of 2020 in the suburbs than in Paris (24% against 36%). In short, the balance of power has reversed between Paris and its surroundings.
“Semi-main residence”
“There is indeed a ‘confinement effect’, confirms Thomas Lefebvre. People have developed a taste for working in a different environment, but nowadays they usually only have two days of teleworking per week, it does not go very far. Hence this choice of the peri-urban. “Teleworking has thus given rise to the concept of” semi-main residence “,” notes the study.
The confinement having aroused in many people a desire for greenery and space, it is therefore quite naturally the houses that experience the largest increase in prices, compared to apartments. In Seine-Saint-Denis they take 7%, against 3.2% for apartments. This dichotomy is found in all the other departments of Ile-de-France.
However, will the capital’s prices drop below 10,000 m2? Not for all that, observes the study. The proportion of sales at the price in Paris, which had fallen dramatically during containment, indeed tends to stabilize, notes Best Agents. “Parisian prices should not drop too much,” said Thomas Lefebvre, in a context where students have returned, and where investing in Paris still represents a form of “security”, according to the specialist. In short, if you were going to buy in Paris, this article should not discourage you … for financial reasons, at least!