“Between 2015 and 2017, we witnessed a big explosion in prices in Bordeaux, with an LGV effect but also the arrival of many investors (twice as many as in other major cities), recalls Thomas Lefebvre, scientific director of Best Agents. Since then, it has not increased much, between October 2021 and October 2022, we are at 1% increase ”. This relative stabilization is achieved at high prices (5,000 euros per m2 on average) when Marseille, for example, is at 3,500 euros per m2.
In Gironde, + 48% on houses, in two years
These rates have pushed a good part of the buyers outside Bordeaux to find more accessible accommodation. “This movement was already underway in Bordeaux and was reinforced after the Covid”, estimates Thomas Lefebvre. Forced into confinement in apartments without an exterior, part of the French people got carried away for houses with more space and a garden. A movement that has resulted in a strong attractiveness of peri-urban areas. If it is running out of steam a little, we observe that the price of houses has increased twice as much as the price of apartments, at the national level.
In Gironde, over one year, house prices increased by 6.3% against 3.5% for those of apartments. And over five years, according to figures from Meilleursagents, the gap is confirmed with a jump of 27% in the price of apartments and 48% in that of houses. In Mérignac, the largest town in the conurbation after Bordeaux, apartment prices rose by 13%. A figure that places it in the national trend.
An unfavorable economic context
If buyers do not lack projects, the rise in rates complicates them. “We borrowed at 1% at the start of 2022 and today at 2%, over 20 years, recalls Thomas Lefebvre, and we know that the rates will increase further. “And, you have one out of two loans which is currently refused, this affects the youngest and the over 50s, which slows down transaction volumes”, adds Pascal Broustet, administrator of the FNAIM chamber of the Gironde.
The geopolitical context and its economic consequences suggest that prices should “mechanically adjust (around -1%) in the next twelve months”, analyzes Thomas Lefebvre. The attractiveness of houses should decrease a little for a return to a pre-Covid level. “Those who wanted to buy houses did so,” points out the scientific director of Meilleurs Agents.
The mandatory energy audit on real estate will also change things a bit. For Pascal Broustet, “those who can no longer rent themselves will find themselves on the sales market”. Sanctioned by this document which will become preponderant, these goods will be devalued, while those which are well classified will continue to increase. “Between 5 and 10% of the park is poorly classified in terms of energy,” he points out.