Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the most influential politician since the founder of the state, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, but his power is crumbling. Can he win again after 20 years at the top?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently changed his profile picture on Twitter – it now shows him wearing a blue flight jacket and sunglasses. It looks determined. The image before the landmark election on Sunday should radiate strength instead of weakness – a man who is advancing his country.
But there are increasing doubts as to whether Erdogan can lead Turkey into the future after 20 years in power. The country is suffering from a currency crisis, the judiciary is considered politicized and the institutions hollowed out. After the earthquake in February that killed tens of thousands, Erdogan was accused of failing to manage the crisis.
Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, not Erdogan, is the favorite on Sunday. According to the Metropoll survey institute, Erdogan was 44 percent and his challenger Kilicdaroglu 46 percent.
The political world looks towards Türkiye on Sunday
Erdogan is one of the most influential politicians since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who founded the republic 100 years ago. Erdogan became Prime Minister in 2003 and President in 2014. A constitutional amendment has given Erdogan far-reaching powers for five years. Some fear that if the 69-year-old comes to power again, the country will slide further into autocracy.
The vote is also being closely observed internationally. Turkey is a NATO member, EU candidate and hosts millions of refugees from Syria. During the Ukraine war, she maintained good relations with both Kiev and Moscow.
Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu represents a broad coalition of six parties. He wants to lead the country back to a parliamentary democracy. The pro-Kurdish HDP has also called on its voters to support Kilicdaroglu. Around 20 percent of the Turkish population are Kurds – as in previous elections, they are expected to be able to make all the difference.
Erdogan challenger Ince has given up
The election campaign, which had started quietly, has recently become increasingly ugly. Stones were thrown at a popular opposition politician, Erdogan accused Kilicdaroglu of supporting terrorists and even showed a fake video to support the claim. One of Erdogan’s three former challengers, Muharrem Ince, resigned on Thursday. In the past few days, allegations of corruption against Ince had been raised and compromising images had appeared. Whether these are authentic is completely unclear.
The Interior Minister even speaks of a possible putsch on election day. Erdogan himself tweeted shortly before the election: “If necessary, like on the night of July 15, we will defend our independence and future at the cost of our lives.” He was referring to the attempted coup of 2016, but left open what future scenario he was referring to. Erdogan’s ultra-nationalist ally Devlet Bahceli recently openly threatened the opposition alliance with “either life imprisonment or bullets in their bodies.” Should the opposition only narrowly win, there is growing concern that Erdogan might not accept the result.
Presidential election could result in a runoff
The great importance attached to the election can also be seen from the great interest shown by Turks abroad. The vote for Parliament and the President takes place simultaneously. Monday morning it will be clear who has won the most MPs in parliament – the alliance of Erdogan’s Islamic conservative AKP or the opposition. But the presidential election could result in a runoff on May 28th.
In that case, all eyes will be on Parliament: Whoever has the majority there will be given better chances in the second round. Because if the presidential office goes to the opposition and parliament to the government, or vice versa, both sides could block each other. The voters know that too. As with the presidential election, the pro-Kurdish HDP could tip the scales in parliament.
The opposition would be in ruins if they were defeated
Despite criticism, Erdogan still has chances to win. He took over the country in the early 2000s during an economic crisis – and led it into recovery. He made sure that the religious part of society got some of the wealth and not just the secular elite as before. Voters still give him credit for that today. Some have had enough of Erdogan, but see no alternative in Kilicdaroglu, who has been at the head of the opposition for 13 years.
Should Erdogan come back to power, the question arises as to how he intends to get the economic problems under control. According to experts, this would only be possible if he abandoned his unorthodox monetary policy. In terms of foreign policy, Erdogan is likely to continue his policy of rapprochement in the region. But he will also have to approach Europe because he urgently needs investments. In the event of a defeat, the opposition would be left in ruins and possibly face further repression. It is likely that the brain drain will continue if Erdogan wins. Many young, educated Turks have already migrated abroad.
Kilicdaroglu wants to renegotiate refugee pact.
Should the opposition win, Turkey would not become more democratic all at once. Above all, Kilicdaroglu will face the challenge of keeping his alliance together in the long term. He wants to make the institutions independent again, probably starting with the central bank. Kilicdaroglu also promises to attract investment to the country and stop the emigration of young people. Exiled intellectuals like the journalist Can Dündar hope to return to their home country.
In terms of foreign policy, no sharp turn is expected, as many cornerstones of Turkish foreign policy remain the same. The six-party alliance wants relations with Russia that are about as good as with the United States. It also sees itself as a mediator in the Ukraine war. Neighboring Greece is concerned about the extremely nationalist Iyi party in Kilicdaroglu’s alliance. The biggest challenge for the EU is likely to be the migration issue. Kilicdaroglu wants to renegotiate the so-called refugee pact.
No matter who wins in the end, there is a mammoth task ahead. The economic problems are enormous, the country is polarized and the earthquake has torn deep wounds that need to be healed.