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In the election for the Turkish presidency, Sinan Orga was the outsider. For the runoff election on May 28, he is already considered the kingmaker. He attaches conditions to whether he makes a recommendation for Kilicdaroglu or for Erdogan.
The man with the dark crew cut is no stranger to Turkish politics. When the referendum on the introduction of the presidential system in Turkey was due in spring 2017, Sinan Ogan was one of the system’s harshest critics. The nationalist politician repeatedly spoke out against the threatening “one-man regime”.
His open criticism cost the MHP politician his job in the party at the time. Party leader Devlet Bahceli had Ogan thrown out of the MHP. Ogan, who entered parliament for the first time in 2011 as a member of the ultra-nationalist party, suddenly had no political home anymore. He didn’t put up with it, complained – and returned. In March 2017 he was expelled again.
Third place with 5.2 percent
This year he makes himself known to the general public: On March 11, the 55-year-old announces his candidacy for the presidency – as a candidate of the ATA Alliance. It consists of four right-wing national parties. To be allowed to vote, he had to collect 100,000 signatures.
He threw himself into the election campaign against incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan and CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In the election, he received 5.2 percent of the votes. He cannot become president, but his share of the vote was higher than assumed.
Observers see this as a frustrated reaction from nationalist voters, who could now decide the election in the second round. Ogan is out in the May 28 runoff, but could tip the scales.
Ogan’s red lines
Ogan is now seen as the kingmaker for the runoff elections. The question is: by whom does he let himself be courted? Ogan now wants to explore how to proceed with his comrades-in-arms. The third man in the election race is reticent: “At the moment we are not saying that we will support this or that candidate. We will hold talks, exchange information and, as a result, make a decision.”
But he is already setting clear conditions for his decision in one direction or the other or for one or the other candidate: “We have certain red lines, such as the fight against terrorism and the repatriation of refugees. We have mentioned these conditions before. “
Kilicdaroglu relies on Kurdish votes
This also means that the pro-Kurdish Islamist party Hüda Par and the pro-Kurdish left-wing HDP should no longer play a decisive role in Turkish politics. For Kilicdaroglu, that’s a condition he’ll find difficult to fulfil. He is also dependent on the votes of the Kurds in the runoff. The HDP had already spoken out in favor of him before the first ballot.
And will Ogan make a recommendation for the president following his criticism of Erdogan in recent weeks? If the almost three million Ogan voters vote for Erdogan as a whole, he has won. If the votes went to the CHP and Kilicdaroglu, it could mean a change of power in Turkey.
Ogan has not yet made a decision, initial talks are said to have already taken place. He won’t be able to keep quiet with his election recommendation for much longer, the election campaign for the runoff election on May 28 is already rolling.