Armenia in December, is it worth it? Valérie Pécresse and Eric Zemmour should answer in the affirmative: the two presidential candidates made the trip to Yerevan this month, but not as tourists. Because a campaign visit to this country which has just emerged defeated from a short war against its neighbor, Azerbaijan, is not neutral. For the LR candidate, it is “support for Eastern Christians just before Christmas”. Eric Zemmour went further by stressing that Armenia is “a Christian nation (…) in the middle of an Islamic ocean”, understood between Turkey and Azerbaijan (however very secular).
In this holiday season, the Catholic electorate would therefore be courted. And Emmanuel Macron is not left out: he published a text this Tuesday morning in The Express where he explains what “he believes” in. 20 minutes therefore wanted to know more about the Catholic electorate within four months of the presidential election, with the study director at Ipsos, Mathieu Gallard.
Is the Catholic electorate an electorate as such?
There is a Catholic electorate. But what are we talking about? If it is all of the people who say they are Catholics, it was about 60% of the electorate in 2017. Obviously, we find there a great diversity of relations to the Catholic religion.
Most often, we tend to focus on practicing Catholics, who have a stronger connection to the faith, who go to mass at least once a month. This represents about 5% of the population who will vote. It is obviously very small, but it can be decisive if they turn massively to a particular candidate. However, this electorate is indeed very specific: in 2017, in this group, François Fillon obtained 48% in the first round, almost half!
So it’s not a cliché to say that practicing Catholics are right?
Traditionally, it is an electorate close to the right of government. Emmanuel Macron is not completely dumped in this electorate either: in the last survey we carried out, he came third with 22% of the voting intentions. [contre 24 % en moyenne nationale]. He is neck and neck with Eric Zemmour and not so far from Valérie Pécresse. It can therefore undoubtedly meet the expectations of part of this electorate.
While practicing Catholics are a typical electorate, there is also heterogeneity. There are still left-wing Catholics, more a lot or in any case a lot less than in the years 1970-1980, but there is also a part of this electorate which is more moderate.
How does it relate to the far right?
It is a traditionally very hostile electorate vis-à-vis the far right and the National Rally. Marine Le Pen had obtained only 13% of the votes in 2017, significantly less than her national average [21,3 %]. In the surveys we are currently doing, we can nevertheless see that things are changing. Of course, still in this group of practicing Catholics, Valérie Pécresse would be in the lead with 29% of the vote, but it is much less than François Fillon in 2017.
This electorate is now also turning to the extreme right, since the second is Eric Zemmour, with 23% of the vote. He is credited with these scores because he is on a slightly different position from that of Marine Le Pen: we remain on the far right, but he is both stronger and more conservative on societal issues. And he puts forward a very marked economic liberalism, while Marine Le Pen has a more moderate economic program compared to the National Front at the time of her father. On these two elements, Zemmour is better positioned to appeal to a traditional conservative right-wing electorate, and therefore practicing Catholic.
What do we know about the values of this electorate?
It is an electorate very positioned on societal conservatism (right to abortion, place of women and minorities, LGBT rights, etc.). Eric Zemmour makes precisely these subjects an important marker, while Marine Le Pen has always been behind. Practicing Catholics, on the other hand, are less positioned on the issue of immigration or insecurity.
But Eric Zemmour brings these two subjects into the larger framework of the identity of France. And there, it can reason with the values of this electorate: when he says “With the” great replacement “, France will no longer be France and Catholicism will be totally in the minority and marginalized in France”, these are elements that can come into play. in resonance with the fears of this electorate, obviously very marked by its Catholic faith.