It’s survey time in the USA, the congressional elections are less than three weeks away, which is why the institutes are currently publishing new surveys almost every hour. The Democrats are likely to feel more uneasy with each new release, because even if the exact numbers differ from poll to poll, a clear trend can be seen in all of them: Republicans are getting stronger and stronger.
That alone would be worrying for the Democrats, but what they might find alarming is that the so-called independents are currently turning away in droves, i.e. those who sometimes vote for one party and sometimes the other, and among them especially the women. A poll by New York Times and Siena College produced a spectacular number this week: while the Democrats were 14 percent ahead among swing voters in September, they are now 18 percent behind in that group.
People don’t always tell the truth in surveys, and in the US in particular, surveys have often been way off the mark. But even if the turnaround among swing voters is only half that, Democrats face a debacle in the Nov. 8 election. It was women who helped the Democratic Party gain a majority in the House of Representatives in 2018, and it was women who propelled Joe Biden to the presidency two years later. And the Democrats had counted on women in the upcoming Senate and House of Representatives elections.
The dynamic seems to have fizzled out
In the summer, the Republican-dominated Supreme Court overturned the nationwide right to abortion previously enshrined in the constitution, declaring that it would be up to the states to decide from now on. The Democrats hoped that this decision would attract an enormous number of female voters. The summer polls actually showed that the party was growing strongly. But this momentum seems to have fizzled out.
The magazine published in the middle of the week political and Morning Consult a poll showing the dominant issues in this election are the economy and inflation. Crime comes third. The issue of abortion comes later along with guns and immigration. Of the New York Times according to the study, abortion is the most important issue for only nine percent of women and one percent of men. But when it comes to the economy, inflation and crime, a majority of voters tend to trust Republicans.
Two other factors are important. First, Donald Trump is not on the ballot, which apparently makes it more conceivable for many swing voters to vote Republican. While the former president is good at motivating his base, he’s even better at driving his opponents to the polls. Joe Biden didn’t win in 2022 because he was so popular, but because a majority of Americans wanted a lot, just not Trump.
That leads to the second point. Joe Biden is not particularly popular, to say the least. 58 percent of voters have a bad opinion of him, that’s a devastating number. Even Trump is in a better position: 52 percent reject him. The Republicans are therefore trying to put Joe Biden and inflation at the center of the election campaign, while the Democrats are warning of Trump’s return. The latter apparently does not catch or only partially.
Half doubted the counting of votes
Also the news agency AP in partnership with the Chicago-based National Opinion Research Center, released the results of a survey this week that asked somewhat broader questions. For example, it was asked whether people will appreciate the result of the election. Result: Only about half of the respondents believe that the votes are counted correctly.
According to the survey, 68 percent of Republicans believe that democracy in the USA is not working, and 40 percent of Democrats share this view. Two years ago, those values were the other way around, implying, somewhat succinctly, that many Americans believe that democracy only works when the preferred party is in power.
Joe Biden announced on Wednesday that he would again tap parts of the state’s oil reserves. The goal is to keep gasoline prices down. These had fallen steadily over the summer, but have recently risen again. In auto country America, it’s difficult to win an election when gas prices are soaring. However, it must be considered unlikely that Biden will be able to turn the mood around again.
According to the polls, the Democrats will lose their majority in the House of Representatives. That alone severely limited Biden’s room for manoeuvre. What happens in the Senate can hardly be predicted, with a little luck the Democrats could keep the status quo there. However, should they lose control of this Chamber as well, Joe Biden would be both President of the United States and, domestically at least, a man without power.