Who has to go, who is new to the cabinet? Prime Minister Markus Söder wants to announce personnel changes this Wednesday, first in front of the CSU parliamentary group – and to ensure that what the boss has come up with is not revealed too quickly, all MPs have to hand in their cell phones. Typically Söder, analyzes Ursula Münch, political scientist and director of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing. A conversation about the right time, the right candidates and a prime minister who likes to be alone in the limelight.
SZ: Prime Minister Söder wants to rebuild his cabinet. Is this a good time?
Ursula Münch: On the one hand, the next state election is due in 2023, on the other hand, the CSU has to find its way into its opposition role in the federal government. So the timing is understandable. However, it may be that it is too long before the state elections and the effect fizzles out. But the new ministers must also have the opportunity to find their way into office.
Is the transformation even necessary?
Söder apparently wants to achieve greater visibility. The special thing about the CSU is that it does opposition work on two levels, at federal and state level. He not only expects more visibility from his cabinet members in Bavaria, but also more opposition to the federal ministers. Which is really asking a lot. This bar is almost impossible to overcome. Especially since he hardly gives people a chance to make a name for themselves.
If it becomes important, does Söder do it himself?
Exactly. There are few who don’t need to worry and for different reasons. Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann is almost unassailable because he is so sovereign in the office and there is no one who can match him. Minister of Health Klaus Holetschek gives Söder more freedom because of the corona pandemic and he is doing quite well. We hear less from Finance Minister Albert Füracker, but he seems to have his department under control. And he has a friendly relationship with Söder. But this shows that it can’t just be about how much you hear from individuals. Some just have a bad reputation.
Where is he from?
Now it affects, for example, Minister of Construction Kerstin Schreyer and Minister of Social Affairs Carolina Trautner. Söder apparently sets a standard that has changed over the course of their tenure. Building and living have become more important, the department is getting more public attention. It’s about the external impact of the heads of department, but also about how to get along inside. But of course things are also spread there, rumors avalanche are set in motion.
This is hard to stop.
And whether the criticism is actually justified or not is difficult to judge from public perception. If someone is too active, then it’s not right either, because Söder wants a lot of attention himself. It’s a dilemma.
There has been a lot of speculation for weeks now, but nobody seems to know anything specific. What is Söder aiming for with the scam?
It’s a question of power. And it doesn’t go down well in public when personal details are spread. When something leaks out, it shows that someone is not in charge of action. It’s paradoxical: on the one hand we all talk about participation, on the other hand we love the strong man who takes action.
In the parliamentary group meeting on Wednesday, the MPs have to hand in their mobile phones.
It’s a sign of strength. And Söder can reinterpret the secrecy and say: I have to protect the people, both those who have to go and the new ones.
What must a new cabinet member be able to do? There are many shaky candidates, but only a few of whom one could be sure that they would automatically do better than the incumbents.
Awareness plays a role, but it has nothing to do with whether someone runs a department well or badly. Public expectation and actual competency diverge widely, with many people believing that the department head in the Ministry of Construction is, at best, a civil engineer. But that is not the case. Administrative experience, on the other hand, is important, and the larger the tasks, the more important. A minister must be able to make the right personnel decisions. Of course, being able to present things in an understandable way and set priorities doesn’t hurt either. And of course someone should be anchored in the faction and able to be successful in elections.
That sounds like outside appointments are not recommended.
There are two disadvantages: you always have trouble with the parliamentary group and afterwards someone in the cabinet who has no parliamentary anchor and does not know the political business. You could see that in Marion Kiechle, who was Minister for Science for a short time. But an external appointment may be necessary, for example when it comes to the women’s quota. But it hasn’t proven itself. This time I could imagine that district president Christian Bernreiter is an exception because he is well anchored in the CSU.
Is a cabinet reshuffle a politically sensible instrument at all?
Holetschek’s appointment as health minister was the right decision. However, every cabinet reshuffle also shows that the prime minister was wrong. If you throw out half of your cabinet after three and a half years, there were bad decisions before. So it has to be dosed.
Conversely, is it really decisive for a voting decision who is the Minister of Construction or who heads the Ministry of Science?
Of course, these are government tasks that are very relevant. Especially those that can still be filled with content at the state level. These are construction and transport, even if you have to work together with the federal government. Science even more, because that is actually a state task. And when it came to social issues, both the CDU and CSU argued after the lost federal election that too little was said about social issues.
If Markus Blume moves into the cabinet, the CSU will need a new Secretary General. What does he have to be able to do?
I think that’s one of the riskiest stories. I have no doubt that Blume would make a good department head. And there was also criticism of him from the party, which speaks for the replacement. But a new general secretary to manage this election campaign with an opposition that feels on the rise is not to be envied.
The 2023 state election is already being described as a fateful choice for Söder. is that her
He has to get a much better result. One would hold it against him very much if he had to form a three-party coalition because it might no longer be enough for the CSU and the Free Voters. That would mean a permanent weakening of the CSU, because I think it is almost impossible to get a one-party government out of a three-party coalition. It could be that the CSU will then lead the government, but without Söder.