interview
As of: 10/6/2021 4:46 a.m.
The first phase of preliminary explorations has been completed. The Greens and the FDP remain in a powerful position. But they would have to end their tactical games soon, said political scientist Thorsten Faas in an interview with tagesschau.de.
tagesschau.de: There are still two coalition options under discussion at federal level – what is your first summary of the explorations?
Thorsten Faas: Clearly – this is new territory. First, that the two smaller ones initially went to preliminary auditions together. And secondly, the question of the format: That you have first decided to sniff each other in pairs before you make the first preliminary decision. Which coalition are you exploring in the three-party alliance? And once again I find it very exciting to see how much the logics of pre-election and post-election time differ.
To person
Thorsten Faas is Professor of Political Science at the Free University of Berlin. He is particularly concerned with polling, voter behavior and election campaigns as well as the interaction between media and politics.
tagesschau.de: In what way?
Faas: Before the election, it was about escalation and polarization – it was about making differences clear. After the election you act constructively, trustingly and result-oriented. The depth and nature of the dispute between the parties differs considerably. However, the will to master this jointly and in a coalition-oriented manner is also evident on all sides – and to actually bring it to a happy end. This is a lesson from 2017 – which everyone has been following so far, perhaps with a small exception in the case of the Union.
“Concrete political measures are still excluded”
tagesschau.de: Does it just seem like that, or in your impression are the actors actually more focused on the matter and the result than in 2017? At that time, the parties seemed even more tied to camps and ideology.
Faas: That is a difficult question. The content that is now being discussed controversially is anchored in values and ideology. But at the moment we are still strengthening ourselves in many common goals and thus ignoring the level of measures. At the end of the day, questions of value would also come into play there. For example, whether you bet on the market or on the state.
tagesschau.de: Does it even make sense to exclude that for now?
Faas: One of the lessons from the failure of the Jamaica negotiations in 2017 is to first establish a level of conversation and trust – “with great seriousness,” as we always hear. This is not a matter of course, but it is actually absolutely necessary in the first step. We are currently in the process of emphasizing a lot of things in common, not so much the differences – in order to tick off a few important points.
tagesschau.de: The fact that the Greens, for example, who are programmatically closer to the SPD and see an option for a traffic light coalition, are now considering a second three-way alliance with the Union, that is new: They are independent of parties looking at the issue where, for example, more climate protection needs to be done .
Three-way alliances: “unthinkable without tension”
Faas: This is something new in two respects. But this election result, which does not clearly suggest a coalition, but makes two three-party coalitions possible, requires different, more strategic behavior from the parties. One thing is clear: In any case, these will be difficult alliances that will not find each other in this three-way constellation without any problems. It is an opportunity for each individual partner to negotiate their own accents, but of course it is also a risk because the tensions between each other are naturally visible.
The second is that several options are being explored at the same time, which we have not yet had at the federal level. In this respect, it is also a strategic game for the FDP and the Greens, on the one hand, to strengthen their own position and not to offer themselves too easily as a partner for anyone – not even from the perspective of the Greens for the SPD. That is definitely still connected with tension. Conversely, you shouldn’t draw too many red lines either: It’s complicated.
tagesschau.de: Now both the SPD and the Union are ready for further in-depth alliance talks. At some point, however, the two little ones have to pack their tactical level. When do you expect a positioning, which alliance one has as a preference and explored?
Faas: It will happen very soon. The FDP and the Greens will again be in a central position. If the two were sending different signals in different directions, you’d be back on the go, so to speak. That will not happen. In this respect, one can imagine that the Greens and FDP will first come to an understanding – and we will have a signal in the course of the week in which direction the first three-way explorations will go. And it is very unlikely that these will fail in turn – even in the light of what we experienced in 2017. That is possible, but not very likely. This week is going to be crucial.
tagesschau.de: That means that the first alliance that is then explored also has a certain pre?
Faas: In any case. It would have to crunch a lot for it to actually stop again. The question then arose as to who would be the one to break it – how could the party actually justify it? To be the one to let it go, it potentially pays a very high price.
“FDP and Greens are not a natural unit, on the contrary”
tagesschau.de: Which one?
Faas: A loss of credibility and the questioning of this very constructive atmosphere, which everyone is now emphasizing. Let’s imagine that it would be the FDP again, especially in a case in which it would decide on its own without drawing the Greens into the next round of the Jamaica explorations – that would be a déjà vu from 2017: on it the party cannot be interested.
tagesschau.de: Do you take the “historical and democratic responsibility” you have emphasized, from the two smaller ones?
Faas: On the one hand, it is a powerful position in which the Greens and the FDP are currently. However, power only stems from the fact that they act together – and that shouldn’t be forgotten at this point: the FDP and the Greens are not a natural unit, on the contrary. But if you think about it together in this situation, then they are very powerful, but with that comes a great responsibility. If the two get caught up in each other, then you are back in the position of actually only being able to go back to the grand coalition.