Poland’s ruling coalition has come to an end – but not the rule of the de facto head of government Jarosław Kaczyński and his national populist PiS. Of course, the coalition previously known as the “United Right” is a thing of the past now that the conservative Jarosław Gowin and his small party “Understanding” have resigned. This could have ended the government – after all, the nine parliamentarians of this PiS party have so far secured a narrow two-vote majority: 232 of the 460 votes in parliament.
But Gowin’s support in his own camp has been crumbling for a long time. And because the PiS also has a rich repertoire of ministerial posts and other benefices ready for any defectors, five of the nine previous Gowin people voted again with the PiS hours after the end of the coalition. Also several MPs around a populist ex-rock singer and some nominally independent, but ideologically close MPs voted with her earlier. Kaczyński and his party will remain in power and government, possibly until the next election, which is not due until 2023.
The PiS will definitely want to avoid early elections
Because with an early election, the PiS (as well as the camp around the rock singer) would probably get a crushing defeat. It is far from previous highs. This is due to inability in the corona crisis and the desolate health system, as well as the further dismantling of the rule of law, the de facto ban on abortion and countless scandals. In addition, the long-desolate opposition has begun to recover since the return of ex-Prime Minister Donald Tusk from Brussels. And in the form of “Polska 2050” by a Catholic ex-TV journalist, another already popular group has appeared that is an opponent of the PiS – and would be an ally for Tusk.
But why are Kaczyński and his remaining coalition partner, Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, who is largely responsible for the dismantling of the rule of law, not at the end of this? Because they will radicalize their politics further and increase the buying of votes with social benefits; likewise their attacks on all political opponents. The public television broadcaster TVP has already been available to them for this purpose, which has long since declined to a propaganda broadcaster based on the Russian model.
While millions of Poles are still suffering from the consequences of the Corona crisis, the PiS and the president it has appointed want to push through salary increases of up to 70 percent these days – a rare disrespect, also towards the financially often not well-off PiS voters in the province. TVP viewers know next to nothing about it. Now the Kaczyński camp is trying to get control of the television station TVN, which previously belonged to the US company Discovery. A new law is supposed to stipulate that broadcasting licenses will only be issued to foreigners if they “have their headquarters or their place of residence in the European Economic Area”. Gowin was against it, which is one of the reasons for his withdrawal. If Kaczyński gets the law through parliament, the opposition would lose its only nationwide television stage – a decisive event in Poland, where few people read newspapers or the few good magazines. Poland’s democracy remains highly threatened.