Pelosi visit to Taipei: “West must perceive Taiwan differently”

The Chinese reaction to Pelosi’s visit to Taipei harbors the risk of an uncontrolled escalation, says expert Shi-Kupfer. However, she does not expect an invasion anytime soon and is calling for the West to take a different look at Taiwan.

tagesschau.de: Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan – what message do you want this visit to send?

Kristin Shi Copper: The visit is a signal of support to the Taiwanese leadership. At the same time, it is a signal to China and the countries in the region that the United States is prepared not only to stand up for Taiwan, but also for a regional order in its interests – together with allies like Japan, Australia and Singapore. This is in contrast to a regional order determined by China.

Pelosi is also signaling that the US has geostrategic and economic interests here and a claim to leadership. Finally, it is a signal to the US, where there is a large bipartisan consensus for a tougher stance on China.

“Establish a military balance in favor of Taiwan”

tagesschau.de: Pelosi said in Taipei that the US would not break its commitment to Taiwan. What does that mean – how far is the US willing to go in advocating Taiwan’s independence?

Shi Copper: In essence, the US is ready to provide military support to Taiwan to ward off aggression if Taiwan is attacked or militarily provoked by China into defending itself. This means that the US wants to create military weight in Taiwan’s favor through its own presence in the region, for example through aircraft carriers.

tagesschau.de: US President Joe Biden has also used such formulations several times in recent months. Now, before the visit, he has conspicuously held back. How do you interpret that?

Shi Copper: There are two levels. Biden assured Xi in a phone call that the US would adhere to the one-China principle. So it could be a strategic communication signal to Xi that he – Biden – cannot prevent this visit in a liberal democracy with different actors.

The second level: This visit carries a very personal touch. We can assume that Pelosi exchanged views with her party colleague Biden before her trip. But she certainly insisted on this visit for personal and biographical reasons – Pelosi has always campaigned very clearly for freedom, democracy and human rights in China, too.

“No Violation of the One China Policy”

tagesschau.de: Beijing leaders say the visit violates the One China policy. How valid is that?

Shi Copper: That’s not true – it’s not a formal violation. Biden has emphasized this again and again. The US still has diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China and has no intention of changing that. However, it ties in with the increasing international recognition of Taiwan as a responsible player within the international community, especially in contrast to the often very opaque and increasingly aggressive behavior of the leadership of the People’s Republic.

This is a process that the United States began a long time ago – also under Donald Trump – at the time it was much more spectacular and rhetorically certainly not as adept as the current US administration.

“Maneuvers of a new quality”

tagesschau.de: The People’s Republic reacted, among other things, with extensive maneuvers around Taiwan. What characterizes these maneuvers?

Shi Copper: As far as we can tell based on maps and announcements by the Chinese administration, these maneuvers resemble an encirclement of Taiwan. Another difference from the military exercises in previous times of crisis is that they are very close to Taiwan’s territorial waters and are to take place partly within sight of the Taiwanese coast. This has a new quality.

We’ll have to wait and see what further announcements are to come and actually implemented, for example whether and where the Chinese army will fire missiles. We remember the crisis of 1995 and 1996, when Beijing conducted missile tests just off the Taiwanese coast.

“Danger that something unplanned will happen”

tagesschau.de: How great is the danger that the military threats will get out of control?

Shi Copper: This danger should not be underestimated. I don’t think that both sides are now actively seeking a military conflict – that’s not in the interests of either the People’s Republic or the United States, and certainly not in Taiwan. But the density of military equipment in the region increases the risk that something unforeseen and unplanned will happen, that risky maneuvers of the kind we’ve seen a number of times lately spiral out of control. This is not to be underestimated.

It is good that the US and China are talking to each other, as Biden and Xi’s phone call showed. It is important that the two leaders continue to be in direct contact with each other and exchange information and information about where red lines lie and what steps can be taken.

“Short-term integration too risky for China”

tagesschau.de: Assuming that Xi Jinping is serious about his goal of annexing Taiwan to China, is this even the moment he was headed for?

Shi Copper: The maneuvers that have been announced, the sanctions that have now been imposed on goods and companies from Taiwan and the cyber attacks show that the People’s Republic has prepared for a situation like this. These reactions are certainly also aimed at their own population. The long-term goal remains the integration of Taiwan, as all previous governments have formulated it. However, Xi Jinping has escalated the urgency over the past few months through a systemic provocation with intensified cyber attacks and intensified penetration into the Taiwanese air defense zone.

But I don’t think that the Chinese leadership will try to integrate Taiwan in the short term. That would be a very complex military operation that requires a lot of preparation. From the point of view of the Chinese leadership, this is very risky in the short term, also due to the experience of the war in Ukraine.

tagesschau.de: To put it bluntly: the Chinese army is not ready yet?

Shi Copper: Incorporating Taiwan would ultimately mean a landing invasion. This is practiced and also disseminated to the public. But I don’t expect the Chinese army to be ready for such a complex operation in the short term, especially given the increased US presence in the region.

“Taiwanese ready to stand up for their freedom”

tagesschau.de: How do the Taiwanese feel about becoming part of the People’s Republic?

Shi Copper: So far, too little attention has been paid to this question. We saw moving images from the Taipei airport, where people filmed Pelosi’s landing on their cell phones and burst into cheers. Admittedly, there are now isolated polls in the Taiwanese media that indicate that people are a little more concerned about the medium-term consequences of the visit. A few – in my opinion very few – voices from opponents of Pelosi’s visit could also be heard.

But at the same time, it is impressive to see how many people in Taiwan say that they have had such worries all their lives. That they are ready to stand up for their independence, their freedom and democracy with all their might, to live with this fear, not to give in and not to surrender. That strongly reminds me of the strength and the will to resist of the people in Ukraine.

“Time has come for a clear position”

tagesschau.de: What are the lessons of the past few days? Should the West intensify its support for Taiwan or go back to quiet diplomacy?

Shi Copper: First of all, the West has to realize much more what a mature democracy Taiwan is with all its pluralism, with all the different tones – in contrast to the People’s Republic of China, where we hear a lot of aggressive rhetoric, certainly also due to censorship. The US has set a new standard here, despite the massive pressure from China in a situation in which the US has no interest in further straining relations with China.

For Europe and for Germany, this means that we should recognize Taiwan’s role much more. Of course, we shouldn’t provoke the Chinese leadership. But we must send a clear signal to Beijing that aggressive threats have no place in a rules-based international order. This is the basis for a foreign policy that does not separate interests and principles, but connects them. So the time has come to take a clear stand for democracy and freedom, be it in Ukraine or in the Taiwan Straits.

The conversation was led by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de