“Much more needs to be done now, on all fronts. » The assessment drawn up by the UN Climate could not be clearer. Efforts to implement the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, are largely insufficient to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and limit global warming. This assessment, taken less than eight years after COP21, was published Friday afternoon by the UN organization. A timing far from trivial, while the leaders of the G20 were on their way to their meeting in India and a few weeks before the next COP in the United Arab Emirates.
Among the 17 “key lessons” of this 90-page report, the authors stress the importance of reaching a “peak” of emissions in 2025, but also of developing renewable energies and moving away from fossil fuels without CO2 capture. . Why define a “peak” of emissions? What can we understand from the other avenues put forward? What can we expect from the G20 and the next COP in relation to the requirements of the Paris agreement? 20 minutes takes stock with climatologist Jean Jouzel, vice-president of the IPCC between 2012 and 2015.
A “peak” of CO2 emissions in 2025, what does that mean?
At first glance, it is difficult to see the logic in relying on higher CO2 emissions to determine climate objectives. In reality, the UN Climate takes into account “the inertia of the economy”, explains Jean Jouzel. “We are on a warming trajectory of around 3 degrees,” he warns, with emissions increasing globally each year. “We should have reduced our emissions by 43% in 2030 compared to 2019. But that cannot be done all at once”, establishes the climatologist.
Problem, even if the European countries are gradually reducing their carbon emissions, “this is not the case of China or India”, explains Jean Jouzel. The “peak” of emissions originally expected “between 2020 and 2025” before reversing the curve “cannot be seen on a global scale”, he regrets. “The climate that the youngest will experience is determined today,” he insists, but “we risk having twice as many emissions” compared to the objectives.
What’s wrong with CO2 capture?
This is Emmanuel Macron’s latest proposal in terms of climate: have each student plant a tree at college. A small gesture intended to ease one’s conscience also offered by many airlines. “It’s selfish on the part of our generations, there is a real ethical problem,” denounces Jean Jouzel. The climatologist points to the next COP, organized in an oil-producing country. “They accept this assessment but want to highlight neutrality with the possibility of trapping CO2” and thus protect their interests.
“It’s far from impossible but the technology is not up to par,” warns Jean Jouzel. There is currently “no economic model”, and reforestation is “interesting only if we respect biodiversity”, he also puts forward. “Trapping will only be effective in a few years at best”, notes the climatologist, while “we could quickly develop renewable energies and, with sobriety, achieve the objectives”.
What should we expect from the G20 and the COP in the United Arab Emirates?
The release of the report, a few hours before the start of the G20, is “not neutral”. “There is hope that the big players will mobilize,” underlines Jean Jouzel, while the members of the G20 concentrate 80% of global CO2 emissions. But “I fear that there will not be many positive decisions,” the climatologist predicted in the morning. “We will not be able to measure global warming without international solidarity, but the great powers are focused on other objectives,” he analyzes.
This Saturday at the beginning of the afternoon, the final declaration of the G20 turned out to be, as expected, mixed. The text thus contains no call to get out of fossil fuels, and is content to encourage “accelerating efforts to reduce the production of electricity from coal”, which excludes gas and oil. The group will “continue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacities”, we can also read, with the G20 members calling for “rapidly and substantially increasing” investments.