Since morning, the Hessians have been able to decide on the composition of their new parliament. Now there is the first forecast.
The CDU became the strongest force in the state elections in Hesse. According to forecasts from ARD and ZDF, Prime Minister Boris Rhein’s Christian Democrats are well ahead of their coalition partners the Greens, the SPD and the AfD, who are in a tight race for second place. The FDP’s return to the state parliament is in jeopardy. The left is unlikely to achieve it.
According to the forecasts, the CDU will increase to 34.5 to 35.5 percent (2018 election: 27.0). The SPD, with Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser as the top candidate, is heading for a historically poor result with 15.0 to 16.0 percent (19.8). The Greens, who are in government, also lose and end up with 15.5 percent (19.8).
The AfD gains significantly and reaches 16.0 to 17.0 percent (13.1). According to these initial figures, the FDP only barely clears the five percent hurdle at 5.0 percent (7.5), and its entry into the state parliament is uncertain. The Left slips to 3.5 percent (6.3). She will probably have to leave parliament in Wiesbaden. The Free Voters came to 3.5 percent (3.0). Voter turnout is reported to be 64.5 to 65.5 – less than 67.3 percent in 2018.
According to forecasts, the CDU will receive 45 to 52 seats in the state parliament. The SPD got 20 to 23 seats, the Greens got 19 to 23 seats. The AfD gets 20 to 26 seats, the FDP 6 to 8. This would make it possible for the black-green coalition to continue. But a grand coalition of CDU and SPD would also have a majority.
Kühnert: Bitter evening for the SPD
SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert sees the results of the state elections as bitter for his party and for the traffic light coalition. “We are expressly not the election winners this evening,” said Kühnert on ZDF. The three parties in the traffic light coalition would have lost in both federal states.
“We should all recognize the signals together in the traffic light coalition: There is also a message for us in this election result,” said Kühnert. He said on ARD that one must recognize that “the general mood is weighing on people’s minds and that more orientation is needed.”
The SPD General Secretary also supported the Hessian SPD top candidate and Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser. Her authority as federal minister has not been damaged, he said. “I can also speak for the entire party leadership.”
Nouripour: Greens stable
The Green Party leader Omid Nouripour describes his party’s election results in the state elections as stable. The Greens hoped to become the second strongest force in both elections, Nouripour said on ARD. The Greens stand for responsibility. According to forecasts, his party has lost.
He described the performance of the AfD, which has made gains in both countries, as “shocking”. This is also a task for the traffic light coalition to regain trust.
Despite the Greens’ losses, federal chairwoman Ricarda Lang speaks of stable results. “These are stable results, even if they are not what we might have wanted,” said Lang on ZDF after the first forecasts. This is a good basis for the future. It is with concern that all three traffic light parties, i.e. SPD, Greens and FDP, were unable to make gains.
Hesse’s AfD leading candidate announces strong opposition
The top candidate of the Hessian AfD, Robert Lambrou, announces that his party will work strongly in the opposition in the state parliament. A lot of citizens in Hesse voted AfD for the first time, he said. “It is an enormous leap of faith that we will prove ourselves worthy of.” He is looking forward to the next five years in the state parliament “with a very strong, bourgeois, conservative, liberal voice.”
Three top candidates with leadership aspirations
Hesse has been governed by the CDU for almost 25 years, and together with the Greens for almost ten years – mostly quite harmoniously. The coalition currently has a majority of just one mandate. While CDU Prime Minister Rhein (51) wanted to defend his office, Rhein’s deputy and Green Party top candidate Tarek Al-Wazir (52) aimed to become the second Prime Minister of his party – after Winfried Kretschmann in Baden-Württemberg. The aim of SPD top candidate and Federal Interior Minister Faeser (53) was to become the first woman to head the Hessian state government.
Before the election, Faeser made it clear that she would only return from Berlin to state politics if she became Prime Minister. The defeat of the Social Democrats now makes this highly unlikely. Faeser could now also be counted on as Federal Minister of the Interior.
Almost ten years of black-green – what’s next?
Surveys before the election did not indicate a real mood for change in the country, but neither did they indicate great satisfaction with the incumbent black-green government. Prime Minister Rhine recently appeared open to various coalitions in an interview with the German Press Agency. The alliance with the Greens is “very constructive, very trusting.” But he has always maintained contact with the SPD and there is “certainly one thing or another in common.”
A clear top national political issue was missing in the election campaign. However, the debate about the care of refugees by the municipalities who complain about burdens was also important in Hesse. Federal Interior Minister Faeser recently announced increased flexible controls at the borders with the Czech Republic and Poland. Similar demands have been coming from the CDU and CSU for a long time. CDU Prime Minister Rhein, for example – unlike his Green deputy Al-Wazir – calls for nationwide border controls against illegal migration.
Around 4.3 million eligible voters in Hesse were asked to tick the box, including more than 107,000 first-time voters. In total, the federal state in the middle of Germany has more than six million inhabitants.
Each and every eligible voter has two votes – one is used to elect a state list of a party or group of voters, the other is used to directly elect a representative in each constituency. The state parliament regularly consists of 110 members, 55 are elected in the constituency and 55 from state lists. Through overhang and compensatory mandates, Parliament can ultimately have more members. In the current legislative period there are 137 members.
At the same time as the election in Hesse, a new state parliament will also be elected in Bavaria. The two votes are considered an important indicator of the federal political situation.
CDU General Secretary delighted after state elections
DU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann is very satisfied with the performance of the CDU and CSU in the state elections in Hesse. Linnemann described the CDU’s performance in Hesse as a “sensational result”. Boris Rhein is a great top candidate who has addressed exactly the right issues. CDU leader Friedrich Merz supported him. The election campaign in Hesse also serves as a role model for the federal election campaign.
Wagenknecht: Faeser dismissed as minister after Hesse election
After the Hesse election, left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht is calling for the dismissal of Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser. The background is the weak performance of the Hessian SPD with Faeser as the top candidate. “Anyone who fails in Wiesbaden is out of place in Berlin,” Wagenknecht told the German Press Agency. “The voters’ red card should be followed by dismissal by the Chancellor.”
The Interior Ministry is one of the most important ministries and “the refugee crisis is at least as dramatic as in 2015,” said Wagenknecht. “We don’t need an election loser at the top, but rather maximum ability to act.” She accused Faeser of “letting the smuggling industry do its thing.” The federal government should take a cue from countries like Denmark and minimize the influx, said Wagenknecht.