parties
AfD with high values in election surveys – far ahead in countries
The AfD is clearly in the lead in surveys in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. photo
© Daniel Karmann/dpa
The AfD is at the polls high – both in the federal government and in the three eastern states where elections are taking place this year. Will the right-wing populists soon take over government responsibility?
A current survey by the opinion research institute YouGov sees the right-wing party at 24 percent in the federal government for the first time. This confirms a trend of the past few months, in which the AfD has always achieved more than 20 percent in surveys on the Sunday question on YouGov. Other institutes such as the Elections Research Group and Infratest dimap have also seen it at up to 23 percent in recent months.
When asked “If there were a federal election next Sunday, which party would you vote for?” 29 percent said the CDU/CSU. That was 1 percentage point less than the YouGov Sunday question on December 8th. 15 percent named the SPD (+1) and 12 percent named the Greens (-2). According to the results, 5 percent would vote for The Left (+1). The FDP remained unchanged at 6 percent.
In the representative survey, 2,007 eligible voters were surveyed online from January 3rd to 8th, and 1,614 indicated their intention to vote. The error tolerance for the entire sample is +/-2.19 percentage points for a proportion of 50 percent and +/- 0.95 percentage points for a proportion of 5 percent. YouGov has been collecting voting intentions since May 2017.
AfD is well ahead in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg
In the eastern German states where elections are due in the second half of the year, the AfD achieved even higher values in a Forsa survey than in the federal government. According to the current RTL/ntv trend barometer, she could expect 36 percent of the votes cast in Thuringia, 34 in Saxony and 32 percent in Brandenburg.
According to the survey, in Thuringia the CDU currently has 20, the Left has 17, the SPD has 9 and the Greens has 5 percent of the vote. Accordingly, the current red-red-green coalition in Erfurt is far from a majority. A coalition without the participation of the AfD is only possible if the CDU and the Left take part in an alliance. However, the CDU has banned itself from working with the Left as well as with the AfD by a party conference resolution.
In Saxony and Brandenburg, however, the current three-party coalitions could be continued. In Saxony, the CDU would have 30 percent, the SPD would have 7 percent and the Greens would have 8 percent. In Brandenburg, the SPD could expect 22 percent, the CDU with 16 and the Greens with 7 percent. A new state parliament will be elected in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1st, and in Brandenburg on September 22nd.
The SPD, Greens and Left are far behind in Saxony
At the beginning of January, the AfD in Saxony came to 37 percent, the CDU to 33 percent, according to a survey by the opinion research institute Civey and the “Sächsische Zeitung”. The SPD was only 3 percent and has to worry about entering the state parliament, the FDP got 1 percent. The Greens with 7 percent and the Left with 8 percent are also far behind the AfD and CDU.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland. The data on the political mood in Saxony was collected between January 7th and 10th. 1507 people were surveyed. The data on the political mood in Thuringia was collected between January 6th and 10th. 1253 people were interviewed there. The data on the political mood in Brandenburg was collected between January 6th and 10th. 1007 people were interviewed there.