The Office for the Protection of the Constitution is eyeing the AfD. But that’s not all. The party’s soaring in the polls is over for now. Where does it come from? And does that even mean anything?
Months ago, the AfD was climbing higher and higher in surveys. It achieved up to 24 percent approval nationwide. Now the values have dropped again. Whether it stays that way remains to be seen. But for now the AfD faces headwinds. Tens of thousands have been demonstrating against the far-right party for weeks. Business associations warn, even the Catholic bishops. The new competition from the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht is aimed at its voters. And the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution is also keeping a close eye on the party.
The “Süddeutsche Zeitung” reported on Monday that the Federal Office was working on a report assessing the AfD as a whole as a “secure extremist effort.” In addition to the authority’s well-known assessment of racism and authoritarianism, the draft contains a new point: “Relationship with Russia.” The Federal Office said on Monday about the SZ report: “The BfV generally does not take a position on internal work processes within the authority.” But it also said: “This does not say whether the facts are true or not.”
Classified as a suspected case since 2021
The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution classified the entire party as a suspected right-wing extremist case in March 2021 – an assessment that was confirmed in the first instance by the Cologne Administrative Court around a year later. The AfD is defending itself legally. There will be an oral hearing before the Higher Administrative Court in Münster in mid-March.
It is usual for the Office for the Protection of the Constitution to examine a suspected case within about two years to determine whether the suspicion has been confirmed – i.e. whether it is a confirmed extremist effort – or not. In the case of the AfD, it is expected that this decision will only be made after the court proceedings have been completed. However, President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution Thomas Haldenwang also says publicly that he sees the party continuously on the way “towards the far right”. The classification as a suspected case enables his authority to use intelligence resources. This includes observation and obtaining information from informants from the respective scene.
The matter has already been clarified for the state offices for the protection of the constitution in Thuringia, Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt: They classify the respective AfD state associations as definitely right-wing extremist and are monitoring them.
Almost not a day goes by without a demonstration against the right
Constitutional protection officers have also been reporting on networking meetings between well-known right-wing extremists and the AfD for some time. Nevertheless, they only seem to have come into public consciousness recently – with the report by the media company Correctiv about a meeting of radical right-wingers in Potsdam in November. Since it was published at the beginning of January, hardly a day has gone by without demonstrations, some of which are directed against the AfD. At the weekend, tens of thousands were on the streets again, in Hamburg, Dresden and elsewhere.
The Federal Government’s Eastern Commissioner, Carsten Schneider, sees this as a turning point. “I assume that the AfD will lose support again,” the SPD politician told the German Press Agency. “I think they are demobilized.” He also referred this to the state elections planned for autumn in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. Schneider also cited the European asylum compromise as an argument, which would reduce the number of arrivals. This would mean the AfD would have one less topic to discuss.
“The AfD supporters were loud, they definitely influenced public discourse at the bus stop, on the train, in the pub and at work,” says Schneider, who himself comes from Thuringia. “They acted as if they were the majority. But the demonstrations against the right show that the AfD supporters are the minority. Now many are contradicting themselves and feel strengthened.” In election surveys for Thuringia and Saxony, the AfD had more than 30 percent in January, and 28 percent in Brandenburg. It is unclear whether the trend will change there. But even these figures show that around two thirds of those surveyed would not vote for the AfD.
Wagenknecht is happy about swing voters
The former left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht does not believe that the demonstrations will have an effect – she sees the crumbling AfD poll numbers as a credit to her new Sahra Wagenknecht alliance. “Do you seriously think that the demonstrations will impress AfD voters?” she asked in an interview with the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”. “The surveys show that those who voted for the AfD out of anger now want to vote for BSW to a certain extent. That makes us happy.”
With demands such as limiting migration and lowering energy prices as well as peace negotiations with Russia and the rejection of arms deliveries to Ukraine, it has some similar issues to the AfD. However, Wagenknecht also has other priorities, including pensions, taxes and the minimum wage. The mixture and the person Wagenknecht also seem to appeal to people who had previously considered voting for the AfD.
Weidel has a problem
The AfD itself has been trying for weeks to downplay everything – and to strongly oppose it. When the Catholic bishops recently advised against voting for the AfD, Bundestag member Stephan Brandner spoke of an “attempt by the Catholic Church to curry favor with the left-wing establishment.” Party and parliamentary group leader Alice Weidel called the Correctiv research and the subsequent protests against the AfD an “unprecedented smear campaign.”
At the same time, the AfD suddenly had a problem: Marine le Pen’s French Rassemblement National, the AfD’s partner in the European Parliament, clearly distanced itself from “remigration” theses like those reported from Potsdam. Last week, Weidel met with Le Pen in Paris to smooth things over. However, Le Pen had no desire to take a photo together.
Weidel also played the role of mediator at the weekend in Rottweil, where an AfD state party conference threatened to get lost in the organizational chaos. The fact that their people won the power struggle in the Baden-Württemberg regional association almost faded into the background.
Weidel and her co-chair Tino Chrupalla actually lead the AfD in the federal government quite quietly – unlike previous leadership duos. Both are popular among members and try to give the party a bourgeois image. However, observers of the party see limits to their power: they can hardly make any decisions against the will of the right-wing current of the Thuringian AfD state chairman Björn Höcke.