interview
Status: 09/21/2022 2:48 p.m
Russia’s partial mobilization is directly linked to the announced sham referendums, says expert Sasse: Putin’s speech shows the pressure to justify himself domestically – little has changed in terms of his goals.
tagesschau24: What impression did Vladimir Putin’s speech make on you?
Gwendolyn Sasse: The speech was not unexpected, but now it has happened and the partial mobilization has been announced. This brings the war much closer to Russia. And so the fact that this so-called special military operation did not go according to plan can no longer be kept secret from the population.
To person
Gwendolyn Sasse is the Scientific Director of the Center for East European and International Studies (ZOIS) in Potsdam. The political scientist and Slavist is also Professor of Comparative Politics at the University of Oxford and an external councilor at the think tank Carnegie Europe.
tagesschau24: How seriously do you take these threats that Putin just made towards the West?
Sass: These threats have always been serious since the beginning of this invasion. In today’s speech, Putin focused even more on the West. While he previously spoke of a “threat from NATO,” in this speech he has made it very clear that the West is attacking Russia directly. That’s an important rhetorical shift. It is necessary to legitimize the partial mobilization of currently 300,000 reservists.
“Rhetorical shifts in Putin’s speech”, Gwendolyn Sasse, political scientist on Putin, announces partial mobilization
tagesschau24 10:00 a.m., September 21, 2022
“Domestic Legitimation”
tagesschau24: Conversely, what does that mean with regard to arms deliveries from the West to Ukraine – and thus, from a Russian perspective, possible participation in the war?
Sass: This speech has to be seen in the context of planned mock referendums in four regions of Ukraine. From September 23, so-called referendums, which are of course not democratic votes, are to take place in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Cherson and Zaporizhia regions. These sham referendums have been announced for a long time, and then repeatedly postponed – also against the background that people in Russia weren’t sure how to actually stage them. Because there was still resistance to the Russian occupation, especially in Cherson.
Of course, these sham referendums will produce the result that the Kremlin wants: there will probably not be a proper vote at all, and the outcome of the “referendums” will show that these areas want to join Russia. The aim is to create a kind of patchwork quilt in Ukraine. Then one could justify that if Ukraine’s offensives on these occupied territories continue, Russian territory would be attacked. So you can prepare this partial mobilization and maybe also a general mobilization. That means you have to see it in a very close context.
From a Russian perspective, this increases the potential for Moscow to continue threatening to take other measures, such as using tactical nuclear weapons. However, this is rhetoric that Putin has used since the beginning of this invasion. In essence, not much has changed. Through the speech, through the mobilization and through the sham referendums, something changes in relation to the domestic political legitimacy of this longer-lasting and much more resource-intensive war.
“Obviously a recruitment problem”
tagesschau24: To what extent does Russia have any chance of launching a counterattack of any kind, given that many soldiers are apparently no longer willing to go along with it?
Sass: That has to be shown first. With this coercive measure, there is no longer any way of escaping partial mobilization. In this case, high penalties are imposed. This further shows that it is very difficult to recruit for this war at all. So far, mainly contract soldiers have fought.
But we saw, especially in the Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kharkiv, how weak the Russian troops were, how sparsely deployed and how quickly they ran away from the Ukrainian troops. You obviously have a recruitment problem and you have to rely on the number of recruited soldiers and take this risky step for Russia.
tagesschau24: Can the reservists make a difference there?
Sass: You can save time. It is an open question whether the 300,000 reservists who are to be given military training again, at least briefly, will then be deployed in phases, which will buy time. We do not yet know whether it can ultimately influence the course of the war.
“Criticism of Putin has become louder”
tagesschau24: It seems as if morale is sinking in their own country. What role do the ultranationalists play in this process?
Sass: In any case, they play a role because they are the ones who most clearly oppose Putin – because opposition from broad civil society or a political movement is almost impossible. But voices that have now publicly criticized Putin and the defense minister for not acting tough enough and for the war not going according to plan have become louder. This also explains the logic of today’s speech and of this step towards partial mobilization.
tagesschau24: How bad is Putin himself?
Sass: Criticism of him has grown louder, and in an authoritarian system like Russia’s, that’s a change, something new. That has never happened before in this context. But we must not immediately assume that the system is weak or that Putin is weak. If one day there is a political change in Russia, this change must come from the elites. It cannot be ruled out that it could also come from the security forces. But it’s too early to speculate at the moment.
A greater danger lies in the fact that war, in its entirety, has a greater impact on mainstream society. However, this does not immediately result in a mobilization of society and a large part of the elite against Putin. So we have to be careful. These are important signs that there is obviously no consensus; that criticism can be expressed. But there is also the possibility of continuing to mobilize through repression, through coercive measures, and to expand this war.
“Major Changes”
tagesschau24: What does this step mean for Putin personally?
Sass: In his speech today, he directly linked to previous speeches – including the speeches at the beginning of the invasion in February and those that followed. In his rhetoric we only see this one important shift, that it is more about the attack on Russia itself. So you want to mobilize as much as possible inwards and consciously draw the threat from outside even closer to yourself in order to then be able to justify these steps.
Looking from the outside, we see that he is forced to take these steps by the dynamics of the war and also has to respond to the arguments put forward by the nationalists in particular. These are important changes in the system, but they will not rock the system to its foundations.
The interview was conducted by Kathrin Schlass, tagesschau24. The interview was slightly adapted for the written version.