Parliamentary elections in Israel: Clear conditions

Israel’s parliamentary elections ensured a clear majority in the Knesset. The country is shifting to the right, the influence of religious forces is increasing – no movement is to be expected in the Middle East conflict.

The good news first: The results of these parliamentary elections have what it takes to finally set things straight in Israel. Given the clear majority for the party alliance around long-time Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the times of the political stalemate in the Knesset, the parliament, should be over for the time being.

The government that is now forming is expected to last longer than its predecessors. Most Israelis, who have been called to vote for the fifth time in three and a half years, will welcome that.

What are the takeaways from this election?

First of all: Israel has clearly shifted to the right and the influence of religious forces is increasing. The strictly religious and national religious parties will in future make up more than a quarter of the members of parliament and would even have the majority in a government alliance with Netanyahu’s Likud bloc.

Left and social democratic parties, on the other hand, are far behind. They pay the price for not competing together. Most Israelis don’t trust them to solve their problems.

Jair Lapid’s future uncertain

For the first time in Israel’s history, a party representing the interests of the Arab-Israeli population was involved in the current government under Prime Minister Jair Lapid. That is out of the question in a new government under Netanyahu. Palestinian citizens make up around 20 percent of Israel’s population. After this election, you will get less than ten percent of the seats in parliament – and you will lose influence again.

The still incumbent Prime Minister Lapid has achieved respectable success and gained stature. Now his political future is uncertain. In the run-up to the elections, he failed to forge a stable alliance.

Preventing Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu was the lowest common denominator of the previous government. This connecting element is no longer sustainable. Especially because there is no longer a majority against Netanyahu. This choice shows that too.

What does that mean for the future?

Personally, Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption and abuse of office, could pull his head out of the noose. During the election campaign, his allies already made suggestions to change the law and thus avert the procedure.

However, his strictly religious-Jewish and ultra-right allies want to go even further and have announced that they will increase the influence of politics on the supreme courts and their composition as a whole. Their aim is to enforce religious regulations even more. This could have an impact on the everyday life of many Israelis.

A deep rift in Israeli society remains

The influence of strictly religious forces is also likely to be noticeable in other areas: in school curricula, in social housing or child benefits. How much this will change the character of Israel as a liberal, democratic state cannot yet be estimated.

And what remains even after this election is the deep rift that runs through Israeli society. Even clear circumstances under Netanyahu will not change that.

Probably not a movement in the Middle East conflict

On the international stage, things are likely to be more difficult for Israel with a Netanyahu government: in the USA, Israel’s most important ally, but also in Berlin and in most of the countries in the region, he currently enjoys little trust. But Israel is dependent on strong allies, not least on military aid from the USA. On the other hand: No state would question a strategic partnership because of Netanyahu, because constellations can change again quickly.

Little can be expected from a government under Netanyahu for the conflict with the Palestinians. He himself and his allies have repeatedly spoken of a possible annexation of the West Bank. This step would fundamentally change the situation in the region, but is currently not enforceable internationally.

Therefore: In the Middle East conflict there will probably be no movement with a new government under Netanyahu. But that is no different from previous governments in recent years.