It’s an election night on which neither party can really triumph: the majority of French people preferred to stay at home on Sunday than to go to the polling station. In the first round of parliamentary elections, voter turnout fell to a record low of 47.5 percent. That is almost two percentage points less than in 2017 and far below the approximately 70 percent voter turnout in the 1990s.
In this unenthusiastic election, the left alliance can achieve a good result. To the preliminary result the Nouvelle union populaire et sociale (Nupes) received almost 25.7 percent of the votes. It is a coalition of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insoumise, the Parti Socialiste, the communists and the French Greens Europe Écologie les Verts. Mélenchon said Sunday night candidates from the Nupes Alliance had made it into the runoff in 500 of the 577 constituencies.
In contrast, the party alliance of President Emmanuel Macron, who was only re-elected in May, was “beaten and defeated,” said Mélenchon. “For the first time in the Fifth Republic, a newly elected president failed to secure an absolute majority,” says Mélenchon.
It is true that Macron’s alliance “Ensemble!” compared to the electoral success in the 2017 parliamentary election, experienced a sharp drop in votes of seven percentage points and ended up just ahead of Nupes with 25.8 percent, the lead of the Macron camp is just over 21,000 votes. However, the final composition of Parliament will not be decided until next week, when the French vote in a second ballot. Like the presidential election, the parliamentary elections in France are held in two rounds according to the first-past-the-post system. In the first round, only two of the 577 seats could be allocated directly, one went to the Macron camp and one to Mélenchon’s left-wing alliance. The run-off elections decide on all other mandates.
The left-wing Nupes Alliance will provide the strongest opposition faction
In 2017, Emmanuel Macron and his party La République en Marche managed to win 314 of 577 seats in the National Assembly. The absolute majority is 289 deputies. Macron was therefore able to govern very comfortably and without strong opposition. This time, La République en Marche joined forces with the centrist MoDem party and the Horizons party, newly founded by ex-Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, even before the first ballot. But this party alliance, the “Ensemble!” was baptized, could now also fail with combined forces to secure Macron’s absolute majority. After the first ballot, the forecasts for “Ensemble!” at 255 to 295 seats. In order to pass legislation, the president’s supporters would need concessions from the opposition.
The left-wing Nupes Alliance will be by far the strongest opposition faction. Forecasts see the Nupes at 150 to 190 seats. However, that would not be enough to fulfill Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s election promises. He had coined the slogan for the Nupes: “Elect me Prime Minister.” In France, the prime minister is appointed by the president. However, if the Nupes became the strongest force, Macron would have had to appoint someone from their ranks to head the government.
Right-wing extremists come in third place
Marine Le Pen’s right-wing extremist Rassemblement National came in third after the first ballot with 18.7 percent of the vote. However, the first-past-the-post system has so far meant that the majority of right-wing extremist candidates are eliminated after the runoff. In 2017, the Front National (now the Rassemblement National) failed to form its own faction in the National Assembly. This time it could be enough for up to 45 seats – a clear gain.
After the first ballot, the right-wing Républicains received 10.4 percent of the votes cast nationwide. The former People’s Party and its candidate Valérie Pécresse fell to 4.8 percent of the votes in the presidential elections in spring.
The second ballot of the parliamentary elections will take place on June 19th. On Sunday, the 15 ministers of the current government will also be concerned with the legitimation with which they can continue to hold office. Of the 15 ministers running for MPs in this election, all must go to the run-off.