General election
Netherlands election: head-to-head race expected
According to polls, the Islamophobic politician Geert Wilders is on the rise. photo
© Peter Dejong/AP/dpa
After 13 years under Prime Minister Rutte, the Dutch are ushering in a new political era. After the polls things get exciting. Three parties could win. This includes the right-wing populist Wilders for the first time.
Around 13.3 million eligible voters are called to elect the 150 members of the Second Chamber. The first forecasts are expected immediately after the polls close at 9 p.m.
According to the polls, right-wing populist Geert Wilders (60) and his Party for Freedom (PVV) are among the favorites to win the election for the first time. The right-wing liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is roughly on a par with the PVV. Top candidate Dilan Yesilgöz (46) wants to succeed her party colleague Mark Rutte and thus become the first woman to head the government in The Hague. Yesilgöz does not rule out working with the right-winger Wilders. In the opinion of election observers, this made Wilders’ PVV socially acceptable.
Absolute majority for no party in sight
According to the surveys, the Social Democrats and the Greens also have a chance of success. They are running as an alliance for the first time and want to prevent the feared shift to the right with their top candidate, former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans (62).
However, the chances that the right-winger Wilders will actually become the new head of government are slim. Hardly anyone wants to work together in a coalition under Prime Minister Wilders. And according to the polls, no party can win an absolute majority.
The topics of this election campaign were migration, housing shortages and poverty. The right-wing parties in particular promised to drastically reduce the influx of migrant workers, refugees and also foreign students.
A major crisis of trust is affecting the country
The election is marked by a major crisis of trust. Less than half of the Dutch still have trust in politics, according to a study by the renowned Social-Cultural Research Institute. Over 60 percent are dissatisfied with how their country is run. Many citizens attest that the state and politicians have failed in migration, the healthcare system, housing and social security.
The new New Social Contract party led by Pieter Omtzigt (49) can also expect electoral success. The former Christian Democrat and long-time MP is committed to a new leadership culture and can play a decisive role in forming a government.
The outcome is difficult to predict, said election researcher Peter Kanne from the I&O Research Institute. “Many will choose strategically.” The election researcher expects right-wing voters to vote for Wilders and his tough anti-migration policy in order to force a coalition that is as right-wing as possible. On the other hand, other voters would now consider voting for the red-green alliance in order to prevent a coalition with Wilders.
Difficult coalition negotiations expected
Wilders was particularly mild during the election campaign. So he put his controversial positions against Islam on hold. “It’s not a priority now,” he said. “I’m available as prime minister.” But his party program remains clear and calls for a ban on mosques and the Koran as well as “Nexit”, the Netherlands’ exit from the EU.
Presumably, at least three parties will have to come together to form a coalition to achieve a majority. Observers are already expecting extremely difficult coalition negotiations – regardless of the election result. After the previous election, in March 2021, it took almost ten months until the right-wing liberal Mark Rutte was able to present his fourth cabinet.
But after just 18 months, the center-right coalition collapsed in the summer due to the dispute over migration policy. Rutte then announced his departure from national politics. He has now been prime minister in the kingdom for around 13 years, longer than anyone else before him. He wants to remain in office until a new government is formed.