Parliamentary election in Croatia: duel full of dislike

Elections are taking place in Croatia today. Four years ago the conservatives won clearly – probably not this time. Small parties will probably be decisive. The election campaign was characterized by a duel.

On the day of the election it is completely unclear how Croatia will be governed in the future. The surveys see the conservative ruling party HDZ as the strongest force. However, she will probably have problems getting the majority of the 151 MPs behind her.

The election campaign was characterized by a duel between the two most important political figures in Croatia’s domestic politics and their mutual antipathy: Prime Minister and HDZ leader Andrej Plenkovic on the one hand and President Zoran Milanovic on the other.

Hit-and-miss populist Milanovic

Milanovic is considered Plenkovic’s harshest critic. He repeatedly criticizes the government’s nepotism and corruption. The HDZ has ruled Croatia for most of the time since independence and has penetrated the state and its institutions. In the last eight years of government, she has worn out 30 ministers, many of whom had to resign due to allegations of corruption and similar scandals.

This was a through ball for Milanovic. Actually, as president, he shouldn’t get involved in the election campaign at all. But in mid-March, Milanovic surprisingly announced that he would be running for the Social Democrats (SDP) as the prime ministerial candidate. The Constitutional Court intervened and banned Milanovic from running for office without first resigning as president.

Milanovic then insulted the judges as “annoying stable flies” – and remained president. Although he is officially no longer in the race, the SDP is now running without a top candidate. But Milanovic continued to be present in the election campaign with his pithy slogans. The very popular politician is a knock-out populist whose positions oscillate between left and right and sometimes turn 180 degrees within a few days.

Pragmatic power politician Plenkovic

His opponent Plenkovic is considered a moderate in the ranks of the conservative HDZ, parts of which act nationalistically. The Prime Minister is a pragmatic power politician. This has made him compatible so far, even with coalition partners who are not necessarily ideologically close to the HDZ, such as representatives of the Serbian and Italian minorities.

But in the last legislative period, Plenkovic’s majority in parliament was wafer-thin; his coalition only had two seats more than necessary. These are now in question. The HDZ and its partners could get fewer mandates than after the last election in 2020, according to surveys.

Small parties will probably make the difference

A lot therefore depends on the minorities and the smaller parties. The conservative MOST and the left-green Mozemo reject a coalition with the HDZ. However, a coalition with the right-wing populist “Homeland Movement” (Domovinski pokret), which is likely to become the third strongest force, would be possible. But their votes may not be enough for a majority.

The SDP would also probably need several other parties to secure a majority in parliament. If this is in prospect, Milanovic could still resign as president and seek the premiership. However, observers believe that Milanovic is not capable of forming a coalition. His positions are often not clear and he reacts sensitively to criticism. A government under him could be shaky and fall apart quickly. Then new elections would be likely.

Of a total of 151 mandates in the “Sabor”, the Croatian parliament, 14 seats are allocated in ten constituencies, i.e. a total of 140. The five percent threshold applies. A further eight mandates are reserved for minorities and three for the diaspora, which numbers more than 200,000 people. Croats abroad traditionally vote conservatively.

Election day is a non-working day in Croatia. Polling stations open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m.