houses of Parliament
Solidarity with separatists gives Sánchez hope
Pedro Sánchez, leader of the Socialist Workers’ Party and current prime minister, faces a difficult task of forming a government. photo
© Emilio Morenatti/AP
After the defeat in the parliamentary elections, the Socialists of (still) Prime Minister Sánchez in Spain suddenly see light at the end of the tunnel. For this, however, a rapprochement with radical separatists was necessary.
This suddenly improves the prospects of the current acting prime minister of being allowed to stay in Madrid’s seat of government, the Palacio de la Moncloa, for a longer period of time, despite the election failure on July 23.
Unexpected stage success for Sánchez
“This surprising stage success paves the way for Sánchez for another term in office,” said political scientist Paola Cannata in a special program on TV channel RTVE. In the panel discussion, everyone agreed. Why? Very simple: In order to continue his government, Sánchez needs the support of several other parties and, above all, a solidarity with the most radical of the Catalan pro-independence supporters: the Junts party of the separatist leader Carles Puigdemont, who lives in exile in Brussels. So far, an agreement has been considered unlikely. But the seven Junts MPs all voted for Armengol.
This shows that despite all the differences, there is a working communication channel between PSOE and Junts. Initially, according to a junts announcement, there was an agreement solely for the election of Armengol. The exact content remained unknown for the time being. Conservative media in particular speculated about what Sánchez had promised the “criminals” and “enemies of Spain”. And to what extent the left-wing government is open to blackmail.
What concessions have been made to the Catalans?
Whatever it was, it is certain that Puigdemont & Co. could ask for even more for Sánchez’ re-election as prime minister. The separatist boss, who is still a fugitive from justice in Spain, had called for an independence referendum in the past few weeks, which Sánchez should under no circumstances agree to. But in recent messages, the Catalan slowed down and said he wanted ‘demonstrable’ concessions from Sánchez. That could be amnesties or more self-government.
After the inaugural sessions of the House of Commons and Senate, talks between the parties on forming a government will enter the decisive phase next week. The danger of a months-long political impasse with negative consequences for the fourth largest economy in the EU, which also currently holds the EU Council Presidency, has still not been banned, it was said unanimously in the TV talk show. Sánchez will “sweat a lot” in the coming weeks, not only because of the high summer temperatures.
The smart socialist, who has often been declared politically dead and has repeatedly been able to overcome resistance within and outside his own party, not only needs the support of junts and the left-wing electoral alliance Sumar, but also of several regional parties from Catalonia, the Basque Country, Galicia and the Canary Islands, all of which are predominantly nationalistic and all have long wish lists.
Parallel to the difficult talks between the parties, King Felipe VI. probably hold consultations with all the parties represented in Parliament as early as next week. It is the monarch who must nominate a candidate for the post of prime minister. He doesn’t have any guidelines at all, not even a time frame. But that doesn’t mean he won’t take his time. Because he also knows about the risks of a “bloqueo”, a month-long political blockade, like the one Spain experienced in 2015/2016 and again in 2019.
Long blockade or powerful separatists?
In order for the King-appointed candidate to be elected Prime Minister in the House of Commons, an absolute majority of at least 176 votes is required in the first round of voting. A simple majority is sufficient in a second round, but neither Sánchez nor opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo currently have sufficient support. A kind of “grand coalition” is considered to be completely out of the question.
Feijóo’s conservative People’s Party PP clearly won the election, but fell short of expectations with 137 seats. The possible partner, the right-wing populist Vox, had also lost 19 seats and now only has 33.
Nevertheless, Feijóo could be named the first candidate by Felipe as the winner of the election. The problem: After the first candidacy was rejected by the House of Commons, the clock started ticking. If the country still has no government after two months, new elections must be called, which should take place within the next 47 days. So around the turn of the year. Many are now wondering what the lesser evil would be: a long blockade or powerful separatists?