Status: 05/12/2023 9:37 p.m
Fans and experts are currently guessing who will win the trophy at the ESC in Liverpool. And bookmakers have been betting on the acts’ chances of winning the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 for weeks.
On May 13, the final in Liverpool will decide who will win the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest. Long before that, fans become experts and experts become fans – and of course everyone knows exactly who will be on the winner’s podium. Nevertheless, as always, this year will probably remain exciting until the end.
Sweden is the undisputed leader in betting shops
After her victory in Baku in 2012, Loreen wants to do it again this year.
Both bookmakers lies Loreen from Sweden with “Tattoo” is currently in first place with a 50 percent chance of winning. The 2012 ESC winner in Baku wants to top off her career in Liverpool again. The Finn is on her heels at some distance Käärijä. 19 percent of bettors bet “Cha Cha Cha” for victory. In third place with seven percent Tvorchi from Ukraine with “Heart Of Steel”. The German participants Lord Of The Lost ranks with “Blood & Glitter” is currently in 18th place. Last year they were Tippers in the betting shops are right with their predictions.
Statistically, the betting odds say nothing about the placements, because bets are only placed on victory. Incidentally, betting on the favorites is not very attractive for gamblers: Anyone who bets their money on this act usually does not earn much if they win – depending on the stakes, of course.
High-flyers in Spotify streams and data analysis of the songs
There are three clear favorites for Spotify users – at least when it comes to the number of streams: Loreen’s song “Tattoo” has been played more than 53 million times – currently more than half a million streams are added every day. Marco Mengoni’s “Due Vite” has more than 48 million streams, and the song broke the million mark on the day it was released. Hot on the heels of the two leaders: “Queen Of Kings” by Alessandra has already been clicked more than 43 million times. After that, the number of views is significantly smaller: “Cha Cha Cha” by Käärija only has around 18 million streams.
In 2021, Spotify had the victory of Måneskin predicted based on the streams in the run-up to the ESC. Last year, the streaming service published a list of the ten most played ESC songs between March and May. Although both the winning song “Stefania” by Kalush Orchestra as well as the runner-up Sam Ryder were on the Spotify list, the streams were not always a reliable indicator of a successful performance at the ESC: For example, the Spotify top 10 also included Malik Harris (25th place at ESC 2022) or The Rasmus (21st place at ESC 2022).
But Spotify has more interesting data for us. All songs there have specific categories in their metadata, such as tempo, beat, key, danceability, musical positivity or energy. The NDR data team has examined the titles from this year according to these criteria and looked at how close they – theoretically – come to a good placement or even victory.
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User voting at eurovision.de
After the two semi-finals, our user voting for the final is now pending. What do you all mean? Who will win the ESC 2023? Your votes please!
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Finland, Sweden and Norway, who had to make it through the first semi-final, are also very popular with you. Here are the top 10 that you think should make it to the finals.
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You also had the right instinct for the user voting for the second semi-final. You guessed eight out of ten finalists correctly.
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ESC song checkers and fans see Finland as the winner
Käärijä from Finland clearly won our song checks.
After our four song checks, it was clear: Experts and users are sure that nobody can get past Finland this year. Käärijä made it to the top of the rankings with “Cha Cha Cha”, followed by Teya & Salena from Austria with “Who The Hell Is Edgar?”. Favorite Loreen, on the other hand, is only fifth in the table. taillight is Theodor Andrei from Romania with “DGT (Off And On)”, which didn’t make it into the final either.