Jennifer Morgan has never missed a world climate conference, but the climate representative of the Foreign Ministry and chief negotiator of the federal government has never experienced anything like this either. On day one of the 28th edition in the United Arab Emirates, the first major issue had already been dealt with: the almost 200 member states of the UN Climate Convention agreed on a new fund for “damage and losses” from which poorer countries should receive money they are hit by terrible natural disasters. Morgan spoke of a “spirit of tackling and coming together” that could be felt in Dubai and must now be carried into the negotiations.
Because the most contentious issue remained unaffected: Is the world moving towards phasing out fossil fuels? Ultimately, this determines whether the conference will be seen as a success for the climate. Climate science agrees that without a relatively quick end to coal, oil and gas, there is no longer any chance of maintaining the goal set in the 2015 Paris Agreement of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or at least well below two degrees compared to pre-industrial times. For many observers, the conference finally gets to the heart of the problem. In Glasgow in 2021, the participants first approached a formulation to reduce coal burning. Now it’s also about oil and gas.
But there is great resistance and everyone has to agree to a final declaration. The conference is scheduled to end on December 12th, until then the negotiators will rush through the corridors of the huge Expo City exhibition center on the outskirts of Dubai. The willing to get as many people as possible on their side, the unwilling to prevent ambitious results and not to maneuver themselves too far into the sidelines. At the beginning of September, at the meeting of the G 20, the strongest industrialized countries, which are responsible for more than 80 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions, a group led by Russia and Saudi Arabia tried to weaken the climate targets. In Dubai, too, there are signs that an alliance from these countries will prevent stricter agreements.
The USA and China have already presented common positions
A lot will depend on the two heavyweights and major emitters, the USA and China. As far as they sometimes differ geopolitically, shortly before the conference in Dubai they presented a declaration with common positions on climate policy. In it they support the demand to triple renewable energies by 2030 in order to be able to replace coal, oil and gas more quickly. US climate representative John Kerry said he would agree to a formulation that would only allow fossil fuels in the medium term if the CO₂ is captured. A technology that has not yet been able to establish itself because it is expensive and energy-intensive.
More than 160 heads of state and government are coming to the Emirates, once again underlining the importance of the climate conference. The Pope is being represented due to illness. UN Secretary-General António Guterres initially sharply criticized the oil and gas industry because, according to figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA), it recently only contributed one percent of global investments in clean energies. And that despite billions in profits. He warned companies about an outdated business model. And called on governments to encourage industry to switch, for example through CO₂ taxes or reducing subsidies.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) landed in Dubai on Friday afternoon and gave the starting signal for the climate club he initiated. The idea came about during the German G-7 presidency in 2022; it is intended to encourage members to play with the same rules in the transformation to a climate-neutral economy. But when not even all G-7 countries could agree on a common CO₂ price, the idea seemed to have failed.
With a changed approach, 36 countries, mainly from Europe, but also from South America, Asia and Africa, are now joining the climate club. Chile will initially take over the presidency with Germany. The club should now find common solutions to decarbonize heavy industry – the steel, aluminum and cement sectors are responsible for a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. “We will do this step by step through the exchange of goods, know-how and technologies,” announced Scholz, “we want to promote green growth. And quickly.” The Chancellor believes in his model of voluntary international cooperation. He is sure “that we will be even more numerous by the next climate conference.”