One month before the first round, the temptation to abstain is gaining ground among 18-30 year olds, according to our barometer

Their gaze is more on the war in Ukraine than on political broadcasts. As a result, one month before the first round of the presidential election, the campaign still does not take hold among young people. According to the third wave of our #MoiJeune2022 OpinionWay barometer-20 minutesWest France-Journaux de Loire*, published this Wednesday, only 48% of 18-30 year olds are sure to vote on April 10. This is one point less than in February. And among 18-22 year olds, the intention to participate in the first round even drops to 37%, against 44% in February.

The campaign nevertheless interests a majority of 18-30 year olds. 62% exactly. But again, that’s down one point from February and the same score as January. “It is very worrying, because normally, on this date, there is a growing interest in the campaign, notes Bruno Jeanbart, vice-president of OpinionWay. But young people are like all French people. It all came to a halt when the Russians invaded Ukraine. In detail, the share of twenty-somethings who say they are “very interested” fell by five points, to 20% against 25% in February, while the share of “not at all interested” stood at 11%, against 9 % last month.

The results of the third wave of the #MoiJeune2022 OpinionWay-“20 Minutes”-“Ouest France”-Journaux de Loire barometer. – Statistics

“The question of the usefulness of the vote”

“However, it is not the political offer that is lacking”, specifies Bruno Jeanbart. 57% of young people say that a candidate represents their ideas, a stable figure. Among 18-22 year olds, we even went from 55% to 60% between February and March. For Bruno Jeanbart, the disaffection for the campaign is due to “the question of the usefulness of the vote”. In January, for the first wave of the barometer, we had already mentioned the dislike of the youngest for voting and their political commitment by other means. But this is something else. “After two years of Covid-19, one can wonder if the war in Ukraine does not put the importance of the vote into perspective, supposes Bruno Jeanbart. We realize that we live in a world where what happens to us does not depend on who is leading us. »

Young people place little hope in this election. To the question “Do you think that your personal situation will improve if your favorite candidate is elected?” “, the answers are very divided. 51% of 18-30s answer in the affirmative and 49% think the opposite. And the older they get, the less optimistic they are, since 57% of 18-22 year olds think their situation could improve, compared to 42% of 28-30 year olds.

The hope of the last weeks

Will this election really interest young people one day? “Yes, hopes Bruno Jeanbart. We generally observe a very strong increase in interest in the last two or three weeks”. And then the calendar will also help. “Now that Emmanuel Macron is officially declared, this will affect the intensity of the campaign’s presence in the media. And we will also unfortunately get used to the war in Ukraine, which seems set to last. This will restore space to the campaign in the media space. »

* Barometer #MeYoung 2022 OpinionWay – 20 Minutes – West France – Journals of the Loire carried out from February 25 to March 3 on a sample of 1267 people representative of the French population aged 18 to 30 according to the quota method.

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