If you look at some countries in Europe, the Covid situation may still seem reasonably relaxed. But no one should be fooled warns the European Disease Control Authority (ECDC): Omikron has long since begun to conquer the continent. “We estimate the probability that the Omikron variant will spread further as very high,” says director Andrea Ammon.
By the end of last week, infections with the new mutant had been registered in 23 of the 30 countries in the European Economic Area. In seven of these states, the authorities also discovered the variant in people who had not previously been abroad, which suggests that it is already circulating in the countries. Some states have already experienced major omicron outbreaks.
The ECDC therefore expects that Omikron will push back the delta variant, which is currently still dominant in Europe, in the coming weeks. If the infection protection measures remain at the current level, the proportion of Omikron cases in all infections is likely to skyrocket in the course of January. The authority estimates that Omikron would determine the infection rate by February at the latest, although it admits that predictions are currently still difficult.
At the same time, the ECDC shares the concern of many researchers that with the triumph of Omikron, hospitals could come under even more pressure than they are now. Even if Omikron should cause less serious illnesses than its predecessors – which is still not certain – its possibly higher infection rates could nullify this effect again. The bottom line is that more deaths can be expected from around March, warns the ECDC.
The number of infections would drop massively if people reduced their contacts by 20 to 40 percent
The infectivity and the extent to which Omikron escapes the immune response cannot yet be quantified with certainty. But even under favorable assumptions about these factors, modeling by the ECDC shows that with Omikron almost four times more fatalities are to be expected than would be the case under the dominance of Delta. In the worst-case scenario, if a particularly high number of infections and low immunity are assumed, Omikron could even kill 18 times more people than Delta. However, these numbers could be massively reduced if people were to reduce their contacts by 20 to 40 percent, according to the model calculations carried out by the epidemiologists.
Therefore, the ECDC currently sees a way out of the looming crisis above all in maintaining and strengthening the “non-pharmaceutical measures” throughout Europe. Vaccinations, especially booster injections, remain extremely important. Nevertheless, warns Director Andrea Ammon: “In the current situation, vaccinations alone will not prevent the effects of the Omikron variant; because there is not enough time to close the vaccination gaps.” Further measures are therefore urgently needed – especially with regard to the Christmas holidays.
In addition to the usual distance and hygiene rules and mask requirements, the ECDC recommends that public events be more restricted. Governments should also consider limiting the number of households at private meetings. Increased testing and contact tracking are also important – regardless of vaccination status. When traveling, the usual everyday measures should apply. Particularly strict regulations when crossing inner-European borders – such as the obligation to perform a PCR test or quarantine – would, however, likely lose their relevance shortly, it said. Because then Omikron will be widespread in all countries on the continent anyway.