Great Britain
New research: Less serious illnesses in Omikron – Drosten: “Groundbreaking study”
Insight into a vaccination center in Belfast, Northern Ireland: Omicron infections are increasing rapidly, and the course could be milder, also thanks to the booster campaign in many countries
© Liam Mcburney / DPA
Two studies from the UK suggest that Omicron may cause less severe illness than Delta. The results have yet to be assessed. The following still applies: Omikron is many times more contagious, and overall there is a risk of more hospital stays.
In South Africa, where the Omikron variant of the Corona virus was first sequenced, there was already a cautious prospect of milder courses in Omikron last week. Michelle Groome of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) had announced record numbers, but indicated that hospital admissions were not increasing at the same rate. There had been “a few increases, but relatively small increases in deaths,” he said. Now, two studies from Great Britain also indicate that corona infections with the Omikron variant lead to hospitalization less often than the Delta variant.
Scottish researchers examined Covid cases recorded in November and December. They compared infections with the Omikron variant with those of the Delta variant. It turned out that the risk of hospitalization in the case of an infection with Omikron is reduced by two thirds in comparison. In addition, the booster vaccination offers considerable additional protection against symptomatic diseases.
Omikron: “The risk of infection remains high”
The number of cases in the study was small, however, and no people under the age of 60 were hospitalized. However, the authors stated that they compensated for these limitations using statistical methods. Study author Jim McMenamin told journalists that the study results were conditionally “good news” – conditionally because they were early observations that were “statistically significant”.
Another study by researchers at Imperial College London found that Omikron’s total hospital admissions decreased by 20 to 25 percent compared to Delta. The number of stays in hospital that lasted a night or more fell by as much as 40 to 45 percent. In the Scottish study, on the other hand, only stays of at least one night were examined.
Azra Ghani of Imperial College London, who co-authored the English study, said: “The reduced risk of hospitalization with the Omikron variant is reassuring, but the risk of infection remains extremely high.” A refresh of the vaccination offers “still the best protection against infections and hospital stays.”
Drosten: “Groundbreaking study”
So far, none of the studies has been independently reviewed. However, the studies are contributing to a growing body of scientific evidence that seems to confirm a less severe course of Omicron infections. It remains unclear, however, whether the lower rate of severe cases observed is due to the characteristics of the omicron variant or whether the disease is milder because it affects populations with greater immunity from previous infections and vaccinations. Christian Drosten, the chief virologist at the Berlin Charité, tweeted: “Groundbreaking study. (…) Omikron is therefore somewhat weaker than Delta. Somewhat. Difference in severe courses still unclear.”
Penny Ward, Professor of Pharmaceutical Medicine at King’s College London, who was not involved in the studies, said they “did nothing to change the extraordinary prevalence of this variant in the population.” It is a fact that “even a small proportion of people who have to be treated in hospital for Covid can become a very large number if the number of infections in the population continues to rise.”
German Expert Council expects “extreme patient numbers”
This assessment also prevails in Germany. The Federal Government’s Expert Council wrote in its statement: “If the spread of the Omikron variant in Germany continues, a relevant part of the population would be ill and / or in quarantine at the same time.” And further: “Rapidly increasing incidences harbor high risks for the critical infrastructure”.
The Expert Council clearly included the possibility of milder courses: “Due to the simultaneous, extreme number of patients, a considerable overload of the hospitals is to be expected – even in the unlikely case of a significantly weakened disease severity compared to the Delta variant.”