faq
Crude oil has become significantly more expensive in recent months – prices are at a ten-month high. This can be seen at the gas station and with heating oil. What do experts say about further developments?
Oil prices have been rising almost steadily since early summer – and the trend is continuing. Brent crude oil rose in price this morning by 0.5 percent to $94.44 per barrel (159 liters). The US grade WTI rose by 0.7 percent to $91.41 per barrel. These were new ten-month highs. European oil is therefore more than 25 percent more expensive than it was at the end of June.
In the spring, prices were still well below the record levels of the previous year – at times below $75 per barrel for Brent North Sea oil. In view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, more than $120 per barrel was previously due.
Why are oil prices rising now?
The main price driver is currently the efforts of producers in Saudi Arabia and Russia to reduce their supply. In view of the production cuts by the two important producers, which were recently extended until the end of the year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently warned of insufficient oil supply over the course of the year and persistently high prices. It is currently not foreseeable that the unequal OPEC+ cartel will abandon its production policy.
Added to this are the recent robust economic data from the USA and China’s latest efforts to stimulate the economy. Experts therefore expect continued high demand for oil from the world’s second largest economy.
Are fuel prices continuing to rise?
This is to be expected. Given the uncertain global supply, the oil industry is currently particularly inclined to pass on its costs disproportionately to consumers. From the ADAC’s perspective, prices at the pumps have been excessive for months.
In addition to driving at low speeds to save fuel, the ADAC advises consumers to pay attention to price differences throughout the day. Fuel is usually cheapest between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. and between 9 p.m. and 10 p.m.
What about heating oil prices?
Heating oil prices are also closely linked to crude oil prices, with regional price differences being particularly high here. The national average currently costs 118 euros per 100 liters. From the beginning of October onwards, the asking prices usually drop significantly.
How do experts see further developments?
While the IEA’s forecasts, as an association of leading industrialized nations, may be too pessimistic, other leading oil market experts have also recently raised their price forecasts. “The psychologically important mark of $100 is already within reach for some,” said analysts at Commerzbank.
However, not all experts expect the boom to continue for long. “We remain skeptical because economic and demand concerns are likely to keep prices in check,” write the Commerzbank experts. They also point to the significant increase in crude oil inventories in the USA last week.
In fact, a further recovery in the global economy is by no means certain given the interest rates that have been reached. Weak economic data could significantly slow down the oil price rally. Statistics also suggest that consumers can at least have hope. As is typical for the season, oil prices usually reach their annual peak in the first half of October before tending to decline until the beginning of December.