A peak in demand for all fossil fuels is expected. Oil, gas, coal… The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts an increase “in the coming years” of the decade, according to the director of the OECD institution, Fatih Birol.
“Even without any new climate policy, demand for each of the three fossil fuels is expected to peak in the coming years,” said Fatih Birol in an article published by the Financial Timesassuring that “this is the first time that a peak in demand has been visible for each of these fuels during the decade”, and earlier than expected by “many people”.
Rising demand, but growth expected to “slow” by 2028
This new outlook is based on new projections from the IEA’s next 2023 annual report due next month. Until now, the agency anticipated a peak in global oil demand before the end of the decade, but it now includes, in addition to coal, natural gas. The IEA estimated that global oil demand would continue to increase, but that growth “is expected to slow significantly by 2028”, thanks to the rise of electric cars, according to its 2023 report. on this fossil energy, five-year vision of the market, published last June.
“The IEA’s advance projections highlight the success of legislation favorable to renewable energies,” RBC bank experts commented in a note on Tuesday. “Despite this, policymakers still have room to accelerate the energy transition and the phase-out of fossil fuels.”