So far, the regime in Iran has rarely been overly optimistic when it came to a possible return to the 2015 nuclear agreement. US President Joe Biden has declared the goal of bringing the United States back into the agreement from which his predecessor Donald Trump withdrew in 2018. Negotiations were well advanced last May. But since the hardliner Ebrahim Raisi became president in the summer, maximum demands have been heard from Tehran.
The spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry spoke up on Monday. “We have made significant progress and have also settled some previously controversial issues,” Said Khatibzadeh said in Tehran. Despite remaining differences, a lasting agreement is definitely feasible in the near future. Of course only “if the USA makes the necessary political decisions”.
He did not say what that meant, but the Islamic Republic is apparently still insisting on demands that neither Biden nor the European negotiating partners France, Great Britain and Germany, also known as E3, are prepared to meet.
It is said that certain progress has been made since the political directors of the foreign ministries met again after Christmas with the Iranian negotiator Ali Bagheri-Khani in the elegant Palais Coburg in Vienna’s 1st district. “Negotiations are still progressing too slowly, time is running out,” a senior E3 source said Tuesday night Süddeutsche Zeitung. “Key issues in the nuclear field and with a view to lifting sanctions are still unresolved.”
The Europeans want to give Iran a few more weeks
The Europeans are negotiating with Iran on the basis that Tehran will return to full compliance with the deal – including all restrictions on its nuclear program. In return, the US has offered to lift all sanctions imposed in connection with Trump’s nuclear activities since 2018. Iran has so far refused direct talks with the Americans, even though Khatibzadeh promised that this could change if the US “changes its approach” – here too he left open exactly what is meant.
Iran is said to be demanding a more extensive lifting of punitive measures, including in areas where the US has imposed sanctions, for example for supporting terrorism or violating human rights. In addition, the Islamic Republic insists on legally binding guarantees that the United States will not withdraw from the agreement again – no US president can promise something like that, as the administration in Washington has emphatically made clear, especially not if the agreement has not been approved by the Senate ratified by a two-thirds majority. Given the majority in Congress, that’s illusory.
On the other hand, one difficulty is that Iran can no longer comply with the agreement in certain areas. For example, technicians have tested new, significantly more powerful centrifuges, contrary to the provisions of the agreement. Even if Iran takes these machines out of service again, the technical knowledge and advances will remain. And this, in turn, could be used by the regime to shorten the time it takes to produce enough fissile material for a bomb.
This period of time is not explicitly defined in the nuclear agreement; taken together, however, its provisions should keep Iran at least a year away from that threshold. While the talks in Vienna drag on, Tehran continues to expand its nuclear program unchecked and is increasingly enriching uranium. At the same time, the regime is making demands that go beyond the agreement, without wanting to fully comply with this agreement itself.
President Raisi is meeting his Russian counterpart Putin today
From the point of view of the Europeans, things cannot go on like this if the agreement is to be saved. “We must now enter the final phase of the negotiations,” said E3 diplomats. “Otherwise we may no longer be able to reach an agreement that provides the necessary non-proliferation added value” – that is, to bring Iran back to the required distance from the bomb.
How long you want to give the talks, none of those involved want to specify on the day. However, should there not be decisive progress on the core issues soon, it is said that other options will have to be considered. We’re talking about weeks, not months.
There is a possibility that the Europeans would then trigger a mechanism in the UN Security Council that would reinstate the international sanctions against Tehran that were lifted with the 2015 agreement. However, it is unlikely that China and Russia, who are at the table, would support or be bound by such a move.
In the past, however, Russia had asserted its influence in Tehran at crucial points. President Raisi is expected in Moscow this Wednesday for talks with Vladimir Putin. The nuclear negotiations are likely to be just as much a topic as a planned joint naval maneuver in which China also wants to take part.
The Europeans will also coordinate with the United States when US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken comes to Berlin this Thursday for a meeting with Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. In these talks, which are primarily about the Ukraine crisis, high-ranking diplomats from Great Britain and France would also be involved, according to Washington.