The only thing that’s really certain about this election is that it’s going to be close. So let’s take a quick look at the starting position:
– In the most recent polls, the CDU (30-32 percent) and SPD (28-29 percent) are neck and neck, usually the CDU has a lead of two to three percentage points. The Greens get 16 to 18 percent and could achieve their best state election result with their top candidate Mona Neubaur. The FDP with top candidate Joachim Stamp can therefore only count on 7 to 8 percent, the AfD with 6 to 8 percent. With around 3 percent, the left would again miss entering the state parliament. According to surveys, many voters were still undecided about whom to vote for.
– The “small federal election” is considered an important mood test: Last Sunday, the CDU with Prime Minister Daniel Günther clearly won the election in Schleswig-Holstein. Previously, the SPD with Anke Rehlinger had won the state election in Saarland.
– There could be several options for the next NRW state government: According to surveys, in addition to a rather unpopular grand coalition of CDU and SPD, a black-green alliance or a Jamaica alliance of CDU, Greens and FDP would be possible. The SPD could also form a traffic light coalition with the Greens and FDP, as in the federal government. In some polls, it is not enough for a red-green majority.