NRW election: all eyes to the west

If NRW remains in the hands of the CDU, party leader Merz can also celebrate. An SPD victory, in turn, also pays into the account of the Chancellor Party. And how do the Greens and the FDP look to the west?

Friedrich Merz has recently started wearing glasses. It is possible that she gives him more insight or foresight – in any case, she stands for change. And Merz shows that he can change. Previously known as a friend of his own success, he is delighted with Daniel Günther’s election victory in Schleswig-Holstein. And even more likely to a possible election victory by Hendrik Wüst in North Rhine-Westphalia. It is conceivable, but by no means certain.

For the federal CDU and for Merz, there is a lot at stake in NRW, even more than for the political competition. It’s about defending power on the Rhine. If the CDU succeeds, Merz will also be celebrated alongside Prime Minister Wüst. And they will not only hoist the flags in Hochsauerland, in Merzland, where they are particularly proud of him. Merz, who, as CDU chairman, is rebuilding the battered party. He’s well on his way to it. The party gathered behind him and came to rest. With Merz there is again a serious opposition leader in Berlin.

The Merz-CDU has more to lose

Does Merz also have an influence on the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, his home country? Quite possible. In any case, CDU heavyweight Volker Bouffier from Hesse also sees the success in Schleswig-Holstein at Merz. “Friedrich Merz’s work is part of this success.”

But Merz also has a lot to lose. If the election is lost and the CDU has to hand over the state chancellery in Düsseldorf to the SPD, that would be a major setback – also for the party leader in Berlin. But they don’t think about that in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus. Merz is optimistic and is counting on a coalition with the Greens in North Rhine-Westphalia because the FDP is far behind in the polls.

The SPD is also courting the Greens

However, the SPD is also campaigning for the Greens. The Social Democrats want to get over the bitter defeat in Schleswig-Holstein quickly. “Wipe your mouth, keep going,” says co-boss Saskia Esken. Carry on, keep fighting and bring Thomas Kutschaty to the State Chancellery in Düsseldorf.

Kuchaty is also a little-known candidate. He therefore relies on the chancellor effect: posters with Olaf Scholz, election campaign with Olaf Scholz. If Kuschaty takes over the state chancellery in Düsseldorf, that would certainly give the chancellor, who has come under criticism, some peace of mind.

Scholz’ approval ratings had recently dropped: he seemed stoic and tight-lipped in public. He hardly explained his politics or his course in Ukraine. A few days ago, however, he went on a kind of communication offensive. Suddenly he is everywhere. Scholz, the policy explainer. However, this still has to bear fruit. Advertising with him in the NRW election campaign therefore involves a certain risk. Not only for Kuschaty, but also for Scholz, because through this chancellor campaign, NRW also votes indirectly on the chancellor.

SPD party leader Lars Klingbeil is still relaxed and points out that the Social Democrats have won six of the last nine elections: “The SPD is strong, we will make that clear this week when we look at North Rhine-Westphalia .”

Fear FDP, self-confident Greens

They all look to North Rhine-Westphalia – including the Greens and the FDP. The FDP fears a crash: the disappointing performance in Schleswig-Holstein, poor poll numbers in North Rhine-Westphalia and weak national votes are causing displeasure within the party. In any case, the party leadership wants to govern in a federal state with the Union – and only with the Union, in order to keep this coalition option alive. That will probably not succeed in NRW, which is why the FDP is banking on Schleswig-Holstein, even if Daniel Günther is thinking about Jamaica.

The Greens, on the other hand, see themselves on the rise. Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck are doing well, recording personal bests in surveys and want to give the NRW Greens a strong tailwind. In Dusseldorf, they can have legitimate hopes of being part of the government in the future. Because both the CDU and the SPD should need the Greens to govern. There seems to be no way around them. A comfortable starting point that would also confirm the green politics and the green political style in Berlin.

So the Greens could be Prime Minister doers. If SPD man Kuchaty wins, it will also strengthen the federal party and Chancellor Scholz. If Wüst wins, it gives the CDU new self-confidence and also confirms Merz. His CDU currently seems like a one-man show. But election winner Günther and possibly also Wüst could soon make Merz look old.