North Korea: old method, new goals?

After a long absence, North Korea’s ruler Kim is back in public and sending seemingly contradicting signals. Is he betting on an arms race to peace?

Whenever North Korea’s ruler Kim Jong Un disappears from the scene for a few days, speculation begins: heart problems? Corona infection? Or even a coup? Kim had gone underground again over the summer and then suddenly back in early September. Tanned, relaxed and smiling, especially much slimmer, he greets the masses in Pyongyang at a parade, with young pioneers on his left and right arm – a scene like something out of a communist picture book. And again the speculation germinates which course Kim is now following, in a suspected corona crisis and against the US government.

The ruler had started the parade in Kim Il Sung Square. Such events are always a feast day, also for observers from abroad, for diplomats, secret service agents and journalists. Because like a seismograph, these parades trace the internal state of the party, military and power apparatus in North Korea.

One time Kim demonstrates his latest ballistic missile, then his foot soldiers with atomic backpacks. The veterans from the Korean War wave, greet Kim’s generals, rattle tanks – and to all that marching music in a loop.

A noticeable difference

But this time it was different: a size smaller, more peaceful, less military. Kim had rescue dogs deployed, including their masters in goose-stepping, a whole battallion in orange corona protective suits, tractors and lots of fire engines, by the way, also from German production.

The interpretation this time: Kim wants to cut a good figure in front of his people: personally, but above all politically. Because North Korea suffers massively from closed borders, the self-imposed corona isolation. This year’s harvests were also poor. Added to this are the western economic sanctions that have always been hated because of the North Korean nuclear program. The economy is in ruins.

The late summer parade may have been Kim’s attempt to give people confidence. And to portray yourself as a young, dynamic leader that the nation can trust.

A new missile rises

On the other hand, the ruler continues to be happy to show his missile arsenal abroad: A few days ago, slim like Kim, a new ballistic missile climbed into the North Korean sky, this time launched from a mobile launch pad, from a train wagon. The start with a trail of fire is repeated for hours on North Korean television.

On the other hand, new images from US reconnaissance satellites from the Yongbyon nuclear facility are somewhat more blurred. Here, too, there are apparently new activities. North Korea, say the United Nations, may have started producing plutonium again; a substance that is needed for the construction of nuclear weapons.

Is North Korea Going Against Conflict?

It’s the familiar pattern: Relations between North Korea and the West are as changeable as the price of Bitcoin. North Korea’s Kim and South Korea’s Prime Minister Moon Jae-in take each other warmly by the arm. Then again the north threatens total extinction.

Kim’s missile arsenal should not be underestimated. But they are not super missiles. Most of the components are likely to come from Russia and are unlikely to be particularly reliable. North Korea doesn’t want to go to war with it. As a propaganda weapon, the rockets certainly do their job. Like the nuclear program, they are the wild cards in the game of poker with the United States.

New negotiations?

North Korea has wanted to force an end to US-led economic sanctions for years and is demanding that the US put an end to military maneuvers in South Korea. The generals in the north feel genuinely threatened by these annual exercises. In this logic, testing a missile every now and then does not lead to a new conflict, but to the negotiating table.

The USA and China also want to negotiate in principle. Neither side has any great interest in a nuclear-armed North Korea. In fact, one hears from Seoul, all parties should talk carefully to each other behind the scenes.

US President Joe Biden has to think carefully about how he wants to deal with the North Koreans – and Kim like the Americans. A public spectacle like with Donald Trump probably wants to save all sides. He had called Kim a “friend”, invited him to his Air Force One and even said they had fallen in love. That should be enough to dissuade North Korea from its nuclear plans. It didn’t help. It only upset the North Koreans.

Peace treaty soon?

South Korea in particular wants to negotiate. And it wants more: finally peace. To this day, North and South Korea are at war. The bloody Korean War lasted three years from 1950 to 1953. Around three million people lost their lives at the time. A trauma for both sides to this day. Only this week, South Korea’s Prime Minister Moon called for a formal end to the Korean conflict.

South Korea is playing the same game as the North: Premier Moon has just had ballistic missiles tested to emphasize his demands. The tactic could work: the North only dismissed the South Korean peace offer as premature. But then Kim’s powerful sister Kim Yo Yong stepped in front of the microphones and called the idea “excellent” – provided the South and the US ended their hostilities against North Korea. So does the “arms race to peace” plan work after all?

Movement ago anniversaries?

Kim has been in power for ten years. North Korea probably wants to celebrate this anniversary in December. In two years there will be another historic date: Then North and South Korea will celebrate the 70th anniversary of the armistice.

Will there be peace by then? Kim Jong Un may want to secure a place in the history books – not just in North Korea’s.