Nord Stream attacks: What we know – and what we don’t

Since the attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines a year ago, investigations have been underway around the world, journalists are following up on leads and trying to reconstruct the crime. What is known so far – and what questions are still open? An overview.

What exactly happened?

The two pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2 each consist of two parallel strands and run on the seabed of the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. On September 26, 2022, there were several explosions on the pipelines over several hours.

Both strands of Nord Stream 1 and one of the two strands of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is not yet in operation, were destroyed. There is no doubt that these explosions were intentional and intended to destroy the pipelines.

Who carried out the attack?

After joint research by the ARDthe “Süddeutsche Zeitung” (SZ) and the “Zeit”, the investigators from the Federal Criminal Police Office and Federal Police and the Federal Prosecutor General assume that the attack was carried out with the help of a 15-meter-long sailboat, the “Andromeda”.

This boat was therefore regularly rented from a German charter company for pleasure boats and set sail from Rostock. Based on the statements of eyewitnesses, investigators suspect a crew of six people. There should also be a woman among them. Investigators are currently trying to clarify who these people were.

Apparently forged passports or false identities were used. The investigation is more specific as to who is behind the Polish company that paid for the rental. Here the traces lead to Ukrainian citizens who deny involvement in the attacks.

Can such an attack really be carried out with a sailboat?

According to the research, both investigators and independent experts believe this is possible. Such a boat lacks important safety measures for diving at great depths – such as a pressure chamber in the event of a diving accident. The entry and exit options for divers are also not optimal for such an operation.

Nevertheless, investigators consider it possible and even probable that the “Andromeda” was used for the attack. In this context, experts from federal institutions were also called in. Among other things, traces of explosives were found on board that correspond to those at the explosion sites on the seabed.

The investigators have largely reconstructed the route of the “Andromeda” using eyewitnesses, but also technical data. It leads from Rostock via Wiek auf Rügen and Kolberg (Poland), among other places, to the explosion sites.

Don’t you need a lot more explosives for the crime than the boat can carry?

Some publications on the attacks mention large amounts of explosives, several hundred kilos per explosion site. Such a quantity could not actually be transported with the “Andromeda” and six people on board.

However, these numbers refer to the measured vibration on the seabed. The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, together with the Swedish National Seismological Network and other international partners, modeled that the main signal of the explosion was caused by the escaping gas because the pipelines were under pressure. The experts have calculated that much less explosives could have been sufficient because the pipelines underwater probably burst due to their strong internal pressure.

But there was evidence of a big explosion?

In fact, the explosions could be registered by seismic measuring devices, such as those used for earthquake research. However, the internal pressure of the pipelines must also be taken into account when evaluating these records, experts say. If the same amount of explosives had been detonated on the seabed rather than on the pipeline, the vibrations would have been much smaller.

Does “traces to Ukraine” mean the Ukrainian government is responsible?

No, that is a conceivable possibility, but there is no proof of it yet. Other variants are also conceivable. For example, a group of perpetrators that operates from Ukraine but has no state mandate or state support. A “false flag” operation is also conceivable, with the aim of bringing Ukraine under suspicion.

What exactly is a “false flag” operation?

The term “false flag” comes from seafaring and describes a ruse used at sea in a war or by pirates to deceive people about responsibility for an attack. Example: An action by conflict party A against conflict party B is carried out in such a way that it looks like an action by conflict party C and therefore B seeks responsibility from C.

The term comes from a time when only the flag marked the origin of a ship. There are many examples of such operations in history, in which, for example, foreign uniforms or captured military equipment were used to deliberately confuse and lay false trails.

Can the traces to Ukraine also be a “false flag”?

Yes, that is theoretically conceivable. However, it is also clear to the investigators that such a ruse could exist. The German investigative authorities currently have no concrete evidence of false leads in Ukraine – but that does not mean that the client must necessarily have been the Ukrainian government.

What’s the deal with Russian ships at the crime scene?

International data journalists and maritime experts have pointed to several Russian ships that were very close to the crime scenes in the days and weeks before the explosions. German investigators have also looked into these ships. However, they have not yet found any evidence that the attacks could have been carried out with the help of these ships.

The Baltic Sea is a highly militarized area in which NATO and Russian ships intensively guarded and stalked each other even before the Ukraine war. This means that NATO has very good data on radio traffic, courses and speeds of these ships. Investigators say that this data does not match an attack.

What’s behind it? Secret Service Alert from June 2022?

In June 2022, around three months before the attacks, the Dutch military intelligence service MIVD informed Western partner services that they had information about an attack on Nord Stream planned in Ukraine. This was the result of joint research with “SZ”, “Zeit”, the Dutch public broadcaster “NOS” and other partners.

This warning also contained a specific date for the attack and also reached the German foreign intelligence service BND. However, the notice was only evaluated when the date stated in it had already passed – and the pipeline was still intact. Therefore, the tip was not considered particularly credible and was apparently not passed on to the Federal Chancellery.

After the pipeline explosion, the MIVD reported again and received further information – including a sailboat. Only now did the BND inform the Federal Chancellery after its research. The BND and the Chancellery do not comment on the events.

You can see more on this topic in the report “Baltic Sea Crime Scene – Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines” now available in the ARD media library and at 9:45 p.m. in the first.