For the French President there can be no doubt about the central issue currently affecting the continent. “If Russia wins this war, European credibility will be reduced to zero,” warned Emmanuel Macron in an interview with French television about his view of the situation in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. There is “complete consensus” with US President Joe Biden and the German Chancellor. Before this interview was broadcast on Thursday in the Bundestag, SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich also emphasized his agreement with Olaf Scholz. His group gives the Chancellor the space to make his “prudent decisions”. The two requests to speak illustrate the Chancellor’s situation. Being in line with both Macron and Mützenich is not only unlikely. It is impossible.
To a certain extent, Mützenich and Macron represent the now extremely divergent expectations that the Federal Chancellor has in terms of domestic and foreign policy when it comes to Ukraine. In the Bundestag, Mützenich asked the question: “Isn’t it time that we not only talk about how to fight a war, but also think about how we can freeze a war and end it later?” Macron made it more than clear on French television what he thinks about such questions: “If we naively tell him that we won’t go further than here or there, then we are not choosing peace, but defeat.” Macron renewed his call not to rule out sending ground troops. Scholz has strongly contradicted this several times.
In a way that is almost impossible to disentangle, two big questions are mixed up in the disputes over the right Ukraine strategy for Scholz: that of the cohesion of Europe and that of the cohesion of the coalition. This also influenced expectations of an unusual meeting in the Chancellery on Friday. At midday, Scholz received Macron for a clarifying conversation after both had aired their disagreement on the open European stage for days. After two hours, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk joined them. The trio wanted to revive the Weimar Triangle. The format was devised in the 1990s to promote European integration. Now it may also serve to build bridges between Macron and Scholz.
Everyone in Europe agrees on one point: the situation in Ukraine is becoming more difficult
There is actually agreement in one respect: in European capitals, the military situation in Ukraine is viewed as extremely precarious – the danger of a major Russian breakthrough is considered real. Scholz responded to this months ago by calling on his European allies to drastically increase their aid to Ukraine. He pointed out that Germany was the second largest supporter after the USA, with arms aid provided or promised amounting to 28 billion euros. After a telephone conversation with Scholz, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy thanked him again on Thursday for the “diverse” support. At least publicly, Zelenskiy does not communicate any displeasure with the Chancellor’s no to the delivery of the cruise missile Taurus.
However, the deep rift in the coalition becomes all the more obvious. The Union failed on Thursday in its attempt to get a vote for the Taurus-To enforce delivery, but the previous debate continues to have an impact on the traffic lights. All speakers from the FDP and the Greens had more or less clearly distanced themselves from the Chancellor’s position, while Mützenich accused Scholz’s critics of “selfish and base political motives.” However, by demanding that we consider “freezing” the conflict, he himself moved away from the line of the Chancellor, who had always warned against a “dictated peace” on Russia’s terms. It is becoming increasingly clear that the SPD wants to present itself and the Chancellor in the coming election campaigns as guarantors that Germany will not be drawn into war. However, this is precisely why Scholz could come under suspicion of being guided by domestic political motives – both in the Taurus-Discussion as well as in his resolute rejection of Macron’s ideas about ground troops.
After their meeting, however, the Chancellor, President and Prime Minister tried to refute all “bad rumors about differences of opinion,” as Tusk put it. “All three of us are serious about our support for Ukraine,” assured Scholz. Macron welcomed the opportunity to “show unity.” Specifically, the trio agreed to form a coalition to provide Ukraine with long-range rocket artillery. When they said goodbye, the German, the Pole and the Frenchman presented themselves to the cameras with a smile – and with a decidedly firm handshake.