JUSTIN SULLIVAN / Getty Images via AFP
Nikki Haley campaigning in South Carolina, the state she led for several years, on February 21.
UNITED STATES – “I refuse to give up. » While she statistically has (almost) no chance of winning the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election against Donald Trump, Nikki Haley reaffirmed at the beginning of the week her intention to stay in the race during a meeting in front of her supporters.
This stubbornness raises questions. The polls put her well behind her rival for the South Carolina primary this Saturday, February 24. The former governor of the state between 2011 and 2017 intended to rely on her record to make the difference, but she remains more than 30 points behind the billionaire. She received only 35% of voting intentions compared to 63% for her opponent, according to a poll conducted from February 15 to 18 and published by USA Today.
FiveThirtyEight, survey aggregator
Donald Trump largely dominates Nikki Haley for the 2024 Republican presidential primary in South Carolina.
This dynamic reflects previous primaries. While she had the wind in her sails at the very beginning of the year, the results in Iowa and New Hampshire were not as good as expected and she placed herself behind the dreaming ex-president to return to the White House. Even more embarrassing: she participated in the Nevada primary at the beginning of February where Trump was absent (he was running in the caucus organized in parallel, due to an electoral anomaly) and arrived… behind the mention “none of these candidates”.
Despite these flops and even if South Carolina risks knocking her out a little more, Nikki Haley doesn’t plan to stop. The candidate, who positions herself as a moderate Republican against the exuberant Donald Trump, says she wants to continue at least until Super Tuesday on March 5, the date when the most states will vote simultaneously in the primaries.
Donald Trump’s legal problems
“Ten days after South Carolina, 20 other states will vote. We’re not in Russia! We don’t want someone to be there and get 99% of the vote. Why so much impatience? Why is everyone freaked out to see me outside the race? »she justified to the agency Associated Press.
In fact, there are several reasons for Nikki Haley’s pugnacity. First, she hopes to be a spare tire in the event of the conviction of Donald Trump, prosecuted in several cases. Appeals are currently being considered to decide whether or not he can run. Even if it is not prevented, a heavy sentence could change the minds of some voters who could fall back on Nikki Haley. This is what the latter hopes, who continues to insist on the fact that Donald Trump spends more time in court defending himself than on the ground campaigning.
The real estate mogul’s legal problems are not the only reason for his persistence. An essential point for campaigning, especially in the United States, is to have a lot of money. And she has it, since she is surrounded by a whole battery of donors ready to support her, including the famous billionaire Charles Koch. It remains to be seen for how long, given his electoral results.
Nikki Haley thinks about the future
There are at least two other explanations, one of which is his age. At 52, she still has her entire political career ahead of her and many other chances to run for president, in 2028 or later. Even if she declares herself a candidate again in 2040, she will still be younger than Donald Trump when he was first elected in 2016, at age 70, as pointed out Politico. 2024 would mainly serve to leave its mark, for as long as possible.
Finally, if Donald Trump is chosen to be the Republican candidate, perhaps Nikki Haley is counting on his defeat in November to tell her voters: ” I told you so “. Even if she repeats that her main opponent is Joe Biden, who will be Democratic candidate, this revenge would place her in an excellent dynamic to reshape the Republican party currently under the control of Donald Trump.
Nikki Haley and her campaign team are refusing at this stage to reveal their strategy after Super Tuesday. It must be said that according to the calculations, Donald Trump should secure his nomination by mid-March, by winning enough states and therefore delegates who will vote in his favor at the party convention this summer. It will then be impossible for the former UN ambassador to continue to defend her candidacy. Perhaps she will consider running as an independent, with the No Labels initiative which seeks an alternative to the Trump-Biden duel? She refuses to answer at this stage.
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