Nikki Haley is leading – at least in terms of spending – in the most expensive election campaign of all time

Around twice as much money was spent on the Republican primaries in the American state of Iowa as on the National Council and Council of States elections in Switzerland. It was over $120 million – or the equivalent of $1,000 for each person who took part in the caucuses. Donald Trump won Iowa by a wide margin, ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who was UN ambassador under Trump. The caravan’s next stop is New Hampshire in the northeast of the USA on Tuesday.

DeSantis focused his energies and his campaign team entirely on Iowa. But he feels like a long-distance runner who collapses in the last few kilometers. In recent months he has been unable to raise enough money to advance the campaign. On Sunday, DeSantis drew conclusions and announced the end of his campaign.

Haley may have only finished third in Iowa, just behind DeSantis, but unlike him, she has steadily gained favor with voters in recent months. The 51-year-old has already invested a lot of money and effort in New Hampshire. While she had 6,400 commercials broadcast on television there by mid-January, DeSantis only managed 1,900. A good result in New Hampshire should give her campaign a boost. The primary elections will take place at the end of February in her home state of South Carolina, where Haley was governor from 2011 to 2017.

The world of super PACs

Why do Americans spend so much more on election campaigns than Europeans? The First Amendment to the American Constitution upholds freedom of speech. Congress in Washington is not allowed to restrict them. This principle applies not only to private individuals, but also to companies, non-profit organizations, associations or unions. They should have largely the same opportunities as private individuals to make their voices heard politically.

This is the essence of a 2010 Supreme Court ruling that went down in history as “Citizens United.” Supporters of this decision see the judge’s ruling as a victory for freedom of speech, while opponents warn that the election campaign is increasingly being corrupted by money.

In any case, the judge’s ruling marks the birth of the so-called Super PAC. These are political action committees that can raise any amount of money from private individuals or corporations (hence “super”). However, they are not allowed to finance candidates or parties directly and are not allowed to coordinate with a candidate’s campaign.

The super PAC is now playing according to the “Open Secrets” platform played a crucial role in the recent election campaign. 318 million dollars have already flowed into the election campaign from these sources.

Nikki Haley can count on the support of two large super PACs that have spent a combined $115 million. Behind one super PAC are the well-known hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller and the co-founder of the do-it-yourself chain Home Depot, Ken Langone. Langone is now tightening the thumbscrews. After the Iowa caucuses, he revealed Financial Times: “If Haley’s candidacy doesn’t gain traction in New Hampshire, you don’t throw money down a rat hole.”

The second major super PAC supporting Haley is sponsored on the one hand by the industrialist Charles Koch and on the other hand by members of the Walton family, who own the supermarket chain Walmart. So far, the one fed by them has Super PAC Americans for Prosperity Spent $45 million.

It turns out that super PACs often do the “dirty work” that politicians’ campaigns shy away from. Americans for Prosperity spent $9 million each on “negative advertising,” i.e. spots that attack either Donald Trump or Democratic President Joe Biden.

30 dollars per resident

Trump, on the other hand, can approach the Republican primaries in a relaxed manner. According to polls, they want him 65 percent of Republicans vote in the primaries; a year ago it was only 45 percent. Even on Nikki Haley’s home turf of South Carolina, he currently has a comfortable lead of 30 percentage points.

What is striking is that Trump is also at smaller donors can score. Contributions over $200 must be reported to the election commission. So far, 103,000 people have donated over $60 million to Trump’s campaign. Nikki Haley was able to raise $19 million from almost 50,000 people. For Ron DeSantis there are only 16,800 people, but at 31 million they contributed significantly more than for Haley.

In any case, this year’s elections in the USA could be more expensive than ever before: The Estimate by the analysis firm Ad Impact is worth $10.2 billion and also includes contests for congressional seats and local elections. This would be 13 percent more than in the last election cycle, but adjusted for inflation it would be slightly less. This corresponds to 30 dollars per resident, which doesn’t sound like that much.

Nevertheless, money is important in the election campaign. A little-known challenger has no chance of recommending himself to the electorate without the appropriate resources. At the same time, it has been shown again and again that elections cannot be bought. Four years ago, entrepreneur and former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg tried to win the Democratic primary with a crowbar. But the 586 million invested wasted without any effect.

The 2016 presidential election is also a good example. At that time, Democrat Hillary Clinton put $1 billion into the election campaign, while Donald Trump’s camp only managed $600 million. Nevertheless, the outsider managed to pull off a surprise.

In the Republican primaries, Haley, Trump’s last competitor, not only needs money, but given the large gap, it’s almost a miracle: despite the indictment for alleged incitement to overthrow and his talk about the supposedly stolen 2020 election, his popularity with the Republicans is high Republican base unbroken.