After the military coup in Niger on July 26th, two horror scenarios about further developments in the country circulated in Europe’s capitals. First: The Russians are spreading in Niger, as they did in Mali and other countries. Second: The new rulers in Niger are canceling the refugee deal with Europe. The first of these scenarios is still possible, perhaps even probable. The second occurred now, four months after the coup.
The National Council for the Salvation of the Fatherland, which has ruled Niger since the overthrow of elected President Mohamed Bazoum, announced on Monday that it had repealed the law with serial number 2015-36. It criminalized the transport of migrants across the country. At the height of the refugee crisis in Europe and under pressure from Brussels, the then government in Niamey passed this law in May 2015. It was intended to close the transit route for migrants from southern Africa through the Sahara towards the Mediterranean. In return, Niger received military and development aid from Brussels.
The agreement was a dirty deal for several reasons
From a European perspective, the deal served its purpose: the number of migrants coming via the Sahara route plummeted, from 100,000 to 10,000 per year. But it was a dirty deal for several reasons: Because the well-trodden route to Europe was closed, many migrants switched to other routes through the desert. Some did not survive the journey. The Nigerien security authorities, in turn, also intercepted migrants in the middle of the country who were moving there completely legally – because as citizens of a state in the West African group of states Ecowas, they actually enjoyed freedom of travel in Niger.
Finally, in Niger, the law dried up an entire industry. The transport of migrants ensured the livelihood of thousands of people in the country. A veritable industry of drivers, smugglers and translators emerged, centered in the desert city of Agadez, the gateway to the Sahara. The majority of these people became unemployed as a result of the law.
The money from Brussels was supposed to help. The EU started projects that were intended to retrain smugglers in Agadez to become farmers. But according to many critics in Niger, far too few people benefited from such programs; Where exactly the money from Brussels ended up was often unclear. The junta in Niamey has now repealed the law on the grounds that it “does not take the interests of Niger and its citizens into account”. The repeal also applies retroactively: Anyone who has been convicted under the law should be rehabilitated.
Expert Laessing speaks of a “worst case scenario”
The Sahel expert Ulf Laessing, who represents the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali, wrote on X, formerly Twitter, the “worst case scenario” for the European Union has occurred. He also blames Europe’s disunity towards the junta in Niger for this. While countries like Germany and Italy tried to maintain a pragmatic relationship with the coup government in Niamey in order to save the deal, France blocked all attempts at talks.
The former colonial power France, which was militarily and economically involved in Niger for decades, announced in September that it would withdraw all of its armed forces by the end of the year under pressure from the junta. “The putschists were willing to come to terms with Europe,” says Laessing. “I don’t know if she’s still there now.”
From Laessing’s point of view, Europe should have taken the path back to normality in its relationship with Niger in order to counteract Russian influence. Several countries in Africa have recently turned to Moscow, including Niger’s neighbor Mali, which is also home to a coup government that cooperates closely with Russia and has brought Wagner mercenaries into the country. Now Russia is “very actively” trying to get Niger, says Laessing, offering partnerships and military cooperation – and will probably “encourage” the putschists in the future to allow more migration to Europe, i.e. using the refugees as a means of pressure.
The European horror scenarios described at the beginning – that Niger joins Russia and ends the refugee deal – could not only come true. They could condense into a scenario that will finally make the powerful in Brussels lose sleep, especially now that the migration issue has come to a head again: an open transit route in Africa under Russian control.