New sources of infection fuel concerns about China’s economic recovery

Actually, they only wanted to enjoy volcanic beaches and seafood, but then Corona intervened: Thousands of summer vacationers have been stranded on the island of Weizhou and in the neighboring city of Beihai in southern China since Saturday. The authorities in the city, which is slightly larger than Munich, had previously identified 450 new infections and then imposed an exit ban. What happens to the tourists is unclear. However, one thing is clear: Anyone traveling in China these days must bring a sense of adventure with them.

Uncertainty is not only great among Chinese tourists. Authorities have found new hotspots of infection across the country, from the city of Tianjin near Beijing in the north, which hosts one of the country’s largest ports, to the gambling metropolis of Macau in the south-west. In Shanghai, where many residents are still traumatized from months of spring curfews, they have ordered mass testing again after 17 infections were found on Sunday. Tens of millions of people across the country are affected by corona measures of various degrees of severity.

This feeds fears that the economic recovery that has only just begun will stall. On Friday, the statistics authority announced growth of just 0.4 percent in the second quarter compared to the previous year – significantly worse than expected by international economists. Compared to the first quarter, economic output even fell by 2.6 percent.

The consequences of the zero-Covid policy are being felt throughout the Chinese economy

However, the strong export business in June, which increased by almost a fifth, gave hope. Car companies like Volkswagen also reported strong sales increases in the Chinese market last month. However, experts partly explained this with catch-up effects after the end of the lockdown in Shanghai.

The consequences of the zero-Covid policy are being felt in all sectors of the world’s second largest economy. The important real estate industry shrank again significantly in the second quarter. News of falling property prices, developers defaulting on bonds and citizens defaulting on loans on unfinished homes are raising fears of a financial crisis. The youth unemployment rate was almost 20 percent in June – a quarter more than a year ago.

Those in power in Beijing are trying to boost economic growth by investing more than a trillion euros in infrastructure projects. This is mainly financed by government debt. While observers such as the International Monetary Fund welcome the economic stimulus program in principle, they advise the Chinese leadership to abandon its rigorous corona policy. However, such appeals have gone unheeded in Beijing’s Zhongnanhai government district for two years.

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