“The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 has started to rise again after several weeks of improvement in the epidemic situation”says Public Health France, in his weekly point Thursday, September 15. A jump of more than 67% of new Covid-19 cases recorded (from 33,263 to 19,866 a week earlier) was noted.
The number of tests (852,500), meanwhile, increased by 9% the week of September 5 to 11, according to Drees, the statistical service of the health and social ministries. A particularly marked increase among those under 16 (+ 56%).
“The number of PCR tests is currently not very high and does not allow very reliable analyzes to be made, but the trend seems to confirm at the very least a halt in the epidemic decline and possibly a rebound, a premise for a possible new pandemic wave »explains epidemiologist Antoine Flahault. “For two days, the reproduction rate of the virus has been greater than 1, which is a robust signal of an epidemic resumption” noted for his part the epidemiologist Mircea Sofonea.
Back-to-school context
The conjunction of two phenomena could explain this recovery:
- First, a certain immune decline in a population that has sometimes been contaminated or received its last vaccine many months ago. However, protection against infection erodes over time.
- Then, the back-to-school and professional context, which further promotes mixing. The increase in contamination is “mainly worn by people under 20”starting with 0-9 year olds (+ 111% the week of September 5 to 11), notes Public Health France.
This is not an unprecedented situation. To the same time in 2021thanks to the return to school, the Delta variant, which had also caused a summer wave, returned to trigger an autumn-winter wave.
“It seems that the current dominant sub-variant of Omicron, BA.5, which hit Europe this summer, has been spreading again since the start of the school year and is progressing in all regions of metropolitan France (except Corsica ), and in almost all Western European countries”advanced Antoine Flahault.
If an eighth wave were to occur, it still seems difficult to predict its magnitude. Indeed, it is not known precisely to what extent the population is currently immunized. “We will remain in a certain fog for at least the next two weeks”predicts Mircea Sofonea again.
Based only on the dynamics observed during the two previous waves, “we should not run the risk of hospital saturation”, according to him. On Wednesday, the World Health Organization (WHO) sent a message of hope, deeming the end of the pandemic ” at hand “ but inviting us not to relax our efforts to achieve it.
Only 30% of those over 60 received the second booster dose
In the meantime, in the absence of remarkable progress in improving the ventilation of closed places, France could still try to increase vaccination coverage in the face of a new wave. Despite the recommendations of health authorities, only about 30% of people over 60 have received a second booster dose.
Within a few weeks, bivalent vaccines (targeting both the original strain of the virus and the Omicron variant) will also be available in France. But those most at risk are urged not to wait to receive their fourth dose. At the beginning of next week, the High Authority for Health (HAS) will specify the articulation of these new vaccines in the French vaccine strategy.