One should be careful with superlatives, but this Dutch parliamentary election is certainly one of the most surprising in recent European history. Geert Wilders, one of the continent’s most relentless critics of Islam, a tough nationalist who wants to leave the EU and NATO, a confirmed xenophobe who wants to reduce the number of asylum seekers “to zero immediately,” has won. And by a large margin, despite all predictions. He could – it’s not easy to write this down – on this “historic” evening, as he is immediately referred to in the Netherlands, he could actually become the new head of government of Germany’s neighboring country.
Wilders couldn’t believe it himself, covered his face with his hands when the result of the first forecast was shown on television at 9 p.m.: 35 out of 150 seats for Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV), almost double compared to the 2021 election. In second place , well after that, the alliance of Greens and Social Democrats (GL/PvdA) led by Frans Timmermans would come. The VVD, the party of long-time Prime Minister Mark Rutte, then received the reward for the scandals and failures of the four Rutte cabinets and fell to 23 seats, while the former Christian Democrat Pieter Omtzigt and his newly founded New Social Contract (NSC) party won a fourth takes place, which was applauded by the members.
The result defies all expectations and predictions. Just two weeks ago it seemed as if the VVD, NSC and the left-wing alliance were engaged in a three-way battle for victory. With the start of the television debates, Wilders’ star rose to greater heights, and shortly before election day a poll saw him in the lead for the first time.
He followed Marine Le Pen’s “de-devilization strategy”.
The 60-year-old populist, a member of parliament since 1998 and therefore one of the most experienced politicians in the country, benefited from several points. For one thing, he ate chalk. The PVV program is, as usual, tough, a kind of “Make the Netherlands Great Again”. But he himself was mild in the debates, without the usual polemics and severity, obviously following the “de-devilization strategy” of his French sister in the spirit of Marine Le Pen. He promised to be “a prime minister for all Dutch people, for everyone.” The issue of Islam, which is not particularly important to voters right now, is still in his party’s DNA, he said, “but the priority now is clearly on other matters.”
Instead, Wilders, the second positive, has focused on social security and the defense of migrants, two issues that surveys show are particularly important to the Dutch right now. Wilders promised all kinds of social relief, completely independent of affordability, which he automatically assumes is given by, among other things, saving all the money for the asylum system. He is not interested in how the “complete asylum stop” he advocates could be enforced without being stopped by the nearest court. Nevertheless, Wilders has obviously managed to tap into almost all of the voter potential, which tends to be on the left economically and on the right when it comes to cultural and identity issues, the same potential that Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party in Germany will also be targeting.
Thirdly, he dominated the TV debates and steamrolled his opponents without, as was usual in recent years, being stopped by Rutte, who was equally strong in rhetoric. Fourthly, and for observers this is the decisive reason for his success, Wilders benefited from the fact that Dilan Yesilgöz, Rutte’s successor at the top of the VVD, left the door slightly open for Wilders for tactical reasons, and cooperation with him was not entirely possible Table wiped. For voters, this was apparently a signal that, in contrast to previous elections, a vote for Wilders was really worthwhile this time, especially since he expressly declared himself ready to govern.
“We want to govern,” Wilders said in the evening
In a short speech in the evening, Wilders made this claim and called on the other parties to work together: “We want to participate, we want to govern, and with 35 seats we will do that.” Otherwise, he served his supporters with the usual nationalist and populist rhetoric. “We will ensure that the Netherlands belongs to the Dutch again, that the asylum tsunami is limited, that people have more money in their wallets again, instead of tens of billions being spent on nonsense.”
What this means for the country, which has so far been firmly anchored in the EU and NATO, and which is one of the fiercest European opponents of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been repeatedly courted by Wilders, remains to be seen. It is also unclear whether Wilders will actually become prime minister. He will certainly be given the first order to form a government. At least NSC boss Omtzigt indicated in the evening that he would not rule out a coalition with him from the start. In view of this result, many politicians would now have to “jump over their shadow”. An obvious combination of parties would be a legal alliance of the PVV, NSC, VVD and the Farmer Citizens Movement, which would probably have to be included because of its strong position in the upper house of parliament. Yesilgöz, however, was more skeptical and negative: “I don’t see how Wilders could form a majority.”
A kind of anti-Wilders coalition is also conceivable
But it is also conceivable that after the initial talks fail, a kind of anti-Wilders coalition will emerge. According to the exit poll, GL/PvdA, VVD, BBB and Omtzigts NSC have a total of 76 mandates, i.e. a slim majority. A minority government will also be among the possible options.
In the evening, Green Party leader Jesse Klaver was very concerned about the consequences of the election results for the country, especially for the rule of law. In fact, Democrats would have to be afraid if Wilders made some of his sayings come true. They would not only affect people with a migrant background, but also journalists from public broadcasting and other “mainstream” media, towards whom Wilders is definitely unfriendly. However, he will have to make major compromises in a coalition. Added to this is his position in the PVV: he is its only member, he decides everything on his own, down to the smallest details, and only discusses it with a handful of confidants. In the future he will have to delegate a lot of things, which could quickly lead to an ordeal.