At today’s meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council, air defense is primarily on the agenda. Because Ukraine is increasingly unable to counter the constant Russian attacks with missiles and drones.
The number is impressive: Israel was able to intercept 99 percent of Iran’s drones, cruise missiles and rockets in last weekend’s attack – thanks to broad air defense and international support.
In contrast, according to a study by the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukraine only had an average interception rate of around 16 percent for ballistic missiles and around 75 percent for cruise missiles and drones in the most recent major Russian attacks.
Zelenskyj refers to aid to Israel
No wonder that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj recently expressed frustration: “The whole world has seen from the actions of our allies in the skies of Israel and neighboring countries how effective unity can be in the defense against terror when the basis of unity is there is sufficient political will.”
He points out that Israel – like Ukraine – is not a NATO member. Accordingly, there was no need for mutual assistance: “No one was drawn into the war, they just helped to protect lives,” said Zelensky.
“Costly mistake”
“Israel’s defense shows that if the Western partners want, they can do much more to protect the people of Ukraine from Russian missile and drone attacks,” says military expert Nico Lange. He was on the management staff of the Federal Ministry of Defense until 2022 and is a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference.
“It is a costly mistake that also worsens our security that the Western partners have not yet done this for Ukraine,” said Lange tagesschau.de. “Our support for Ukraine needs a change of strategy.”
Too late for the expected major Russian offensive
The federal government has taken a first step after the Iranian attack on Israel: In the short term, another “Patriot” defense system from Bundeswehr stocks will be delivered to Ukraine. Ukrainian soldiers will be trained on it from mid-May.
The system will be ready for use in Ukraine at the end of June – too late for the expected major Russian offensive. Ukraine assumes that the leadership in Moscow aims to deliver a military triumph to the population on the anniversary of the end of the Second World War on May 9th.
According to estimates by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and the National Security Council, the country needs at least ten “Patriot” systems for reasonably comprehensive protection. It is said that 26 systems are necessary for comprehensive protection. So far, however, only two are in use in Ukraine – handed over by Germany and the Netherlands. What the federal government has now promised would be the third.
“Partners should shoot down all Russian missiles”
That’s why Lange is calling for unconventional solutions in the short term: “From now on, the partners should use the numerous ‘Patriot’ systems on our eastern borders to shoot down all Russian missiles and drones that they have within range over Ukraine.”
He is thinking primarily of NATO air defense systems in eastern Poland, which could be used to fire Russian missiles from there over western Ukraine. “This would be fully covered under international law,” said Lange tagesschau.de. Nothing different happened when Iranian missiles and drones were intercepted.
“We have to massively ramp up production”
In the long term, however, production must be massively increased. “It was a strategic mistake not to systematically boost production as early as 2022,” says Lange. But there is still potential to buy old systems such as “Hawk” and ammunition for them from former user states and bring them to Ukraine. “However, someone has to actually take care of this instead of always just pointing the finger at others,” says Lange.
In the future, “Patriot” defense systems will also be produced in Germany – as part of a joint venture between the US company Raytheon and the German defense company MBDA, the manufacturer of the “Taurus” cruise missile.
Production in Schrobenhausen, Bavaria, is the first outside the USA. As part of the European Sky Shield Initiative, “Patriot” systems worth 5.1 billion euros are to be produced there, including for Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain. However, Germany does not expect the first deliveries until 2027.