NATO
Security for Ukraine: NATO is planning for the Trump scenario
The Secretary General of NATO: Jens Stoltenberg. photo
© Virginia Mayo/AP/dpa
There is concern in NATO that the US could reduce or even stop supporting Ukraine if Donald Trump wins the election. Can possible consequences be mitigated?
The member states have agreed to draw up concrete plans for a greater coordination role, explained Stoltenberg. The Norwegian also wants to persuade the alliance countries to promise Ukraine military support worth 100 billion euros through NATO over the next five years.
The background is the concern that the United States could significantly reduce or even stop its commitment to Ukraine if the Republican Trump wins the presidential election in November. According to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Trump recently told him that if he returned to the White House, there would not be a single US penny left for weapons aid.
“Any delay in providing support currently has consequences on the battlefield,” said Stoltenberg, referring to Russia’s recent major attacks on Ukraine. It is therefore about creating a new dynamic and relying more on solid, multi-year NATO commitments than on voluntary contributions.
Fairer burden sharing
Specifically, Stoltenberg’s proposals stipulate that NATO should in future take care of the coordination of weapons deliveries and training activities for the Ukrainian armed forces via a “NATO Mission Ukraine”. This job is currently in the hands of the USA, which regularly organizes meetings at its air base in Ramstein, Rhineland-Palatinate, or in Brussels, for example. It’s about putting support for Ukraine on a firmer and more lasting basis, said Stoltenberg. The Ukrainians are not running out of courage, they are running out of ammunition, he warned.
The push for the 100 billion euro package also aims to spread the burden of Ukraine support across more shoulders. According to Stoltenberg, the USA has so far paid around 50 percent of military aid to Ukraine. According to the alliance’s financing key from 2023, they would only have to pay around 16 percent of NATO’s 100 billion euro package – the same as Germany. However, other countries such as France, Italy and Spain could face major additional burdens. They are currently providing comparatively little military aid to Ukraine in relation to their economic power.
Whether Stoltenberg’s proposals can be implemented will become clear in the coming months until the summit in July.
Baerbock warns against number juggling
With a view to possible new NATO coordination tasks, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that creating reliable and long-term structures for planning weapons deliveries and training activities was “right and important”. The Green politician was only comparatively critical of Stoltenberg’s proposal to guarantee Ukraine military aid worth 100 billion euros via NATO. “It is important here that we do not duplicate the processes between the EU and NATO,” she said, referring to the EU’s existing financing instruments. She doesn’t think it makes sense to juggle numbers now.
NATO’s 75th birthday is to be celebrated on the second day of the foreign ministers’ meeting. The defense alliance was founded on April 4, 1949 in Washington as a reaction to the perceived threatening policies of the communist Soviet Union. In the Cold War, the defense alliance was intended to provide a deterrent counterweight to the eastern military power and contribute to peace and security.
The NATO Secretary General was convinced that the alliance has not yet reached its limits. Ukraine will also become a member of NATO, said the Norwegian, referring to a summit decision from 2008. The only question is when it will become a member, not if.