At 9:51 a.m., the fists clash. As is customary in times of pandemics, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg does not greet the guests from Moscow with a handshake, but with a touch of their fists. None of the three men seemed relaxed when they briefly pose for the cameras. The fact that Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko are visiting NATO headquarters in Brussels and that the NATO-Russia Council is meeting again after two and a half years is a small sensation in view of the miserable relations between Russia and the defense alliance – and one “positive signal”that gives hope to some in the Alliance.
It had been emphasized in Brussels beforehand that this was only a first conversation. Negotiations are definitely not going on about Moscow’s demands for security guarantees, such as the withdrawal of US nuclear weapons from Europe or an assurance that neither Georgia nor Ukraine will join NATO. This wish list is called “unacceptable” in NATO. Instead, it is trying to dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine and stopping the deployment of troops on the borders with Ukraine. If the more than one hundred thousand soldiers including heavy equipment withdraw, this would be the de-escalation demanded not only by the USA.
In the hall, Stoltenberg shows Gruschko around and introduces all representatives of the 30 NATO members. Fists clash again, some dare to shake hands. For Grushko it is a kind of return; He was Russia’s ambassador to NATO from 2011 to 2018 and knows the centrifugal forces in the Alliance. He knows that France is pressing for a stronger role for the EU in overcoming the crisis, while Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians warn against concessions from their own experience: Putin will then only demand more.
The meeting begins at 10:07 a.m. Behind closed doors, the Russians extensively advertise their drafts of new security agreements, then it’s the turn of NATO members. Everyone spoke up, after three or four of their requests to speak, Fomin or Gruschko can answer – in Russian and “quite long,” as it was later said. The tone is described as “businesslike”. Vice Secretary of State Wendy Sherman spreads the US’s most important message during the session – on Twitter. Stand by the basic principle of the international system and European security: “Every country has the right to choose its own path.” In doing so, she again rejects Russia’s request for a veto on NATO expansion.
The conversations are very serious and direct, says Stoltenberg
In the press conference, Secretary General Stoltenberg emphasized that this position is also shared by the 29 other members. The discussions, which lasted four hours longer than expected, were “not easy”. The situation in and near Ukraine was talked about “very seriously and directly”. Of course, the alliance will not agree to anything that endangers the security of its members and their defense, says Stoltenberg.
The Russians would not have immediately rejected NATO’s offer to set a schedule for further meetings – in the current situation this is already considered a success. As possible topics, Stoltenberg names what has been circulating for days: The transparency of exercises should be increased and arms control and mutual limitation in the stationing of missiles and cruise missiles could also be discussed.
For the top US diplomat Sherman, the meeting shows how important diplomacy is and again calls on Moscow to de-escalate, because: “Russia is responsible for this crisis.” Despite a corresponding offer, the Russians did not want to appear in front of the press at NATO, i.e. on enemy territory, but in the embassy responsible for relations with Belgium. Grushko speaks of a “useful meeting” there, but he criticizes NATO’s lack of courtesy in taking the security interests of other states into account. As a result of the rounds of enlargement, the situation for Moscow is “unbearable”. The NATO countries were told that accepting new members would bring more risks than benefits.
What’s next NATO will monitor Russia’s troop movements and prepare in the event that diplomacy fails, as Stoltenberg has been saying for days. Defense ministers are due to discuss in February whether NATO will strengthen its military presence on its eastern flank. In response to Russia’s illegal annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014, NATO set up multinational combat units with 1,000 soldiers each in the Baltic republics and Poland. Something similar could happen in Romania and Bulgaria.
Whether it comes to that depends on one man: does Putin continue to rely on threats? According to Wendy Sherman, Russia’s representatives have not committed to de-escalation. But she hopes that Putin will opt for peace and security.