exclusive
The BND deals with wars, terrorism and foreign states. The federal government has now commissioned the foreign secret service to research the security-relevant effects of climate change in more detail.
After a long wait and many discussions behind the scenes, the time had finally come in June: the traffic light coalition was the first federal government to present a national security strategy. It describes current threats and future security policy challenges for Germany – and at least sketches out measures against them. A roadmap for how the country should become safer, you could say.
In the Chausseestrasse in Berlin-Mitte, at the headquarters of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), the 76-page paper was read carefully. After all, the BND, with its more than 6,000 employees, is one of the largest German security authorities. In the national security strategy, however, the foreign secret service is only explicitly mentioned once. And this is not about counterterrorism, espionage against Russia or China, information gathering in war zones or cyber defense.
Cooperation with scientists
On page 67 of the strategy paper it says: “In order to better assess the effects of the climate crisis on our national security and to derive informed decisions for action, the federal government will commission a study by leading scientific institutions together with the Federal Intelligence Service.” The BND should now work with scientists to investigate climate change and its consequences for security policy.
After WDR-Information, a consortium was recently put together under the leadership of the Foreign Office to develop such a study and present it next year, as a spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry confirmed upon request. In addition to the BND, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIT), the Metis Institute for Strategy and Foresight, which is based at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, and the Berlin-based think tank and consulting agency adelphi, which specializes in climate and environmental issues, are involved.
Global warming increasing safety relevant
A focus on the effects of climate change may not seem like the core task of an intelligence service at first glance, but the consequences of global warming have also been in the focus of security authorities for some time. The main focus is on analyzing and predicting which aspects could have a negative impact on the stability of states and their own defense capabilities – and thus lead to new conflicts and distribution struggles.
For example, long periods of drought and extreme weather phenomena lead to the loss of livelihoods. The result is migration movements, but sometimes also political unrest, uprisings or even civil wars. Likewise, certain countries such as Bangladesh, parts of Pakistan and India, and especially the island states of the Pacific are at risk of flooding due to rising sea levels, which can lead to a growing number of internally displaced people and domestic political conflicts.
The effects of climate change are triggering increased migration.
US secret services have been analyzing the situation for years
A few years ago, the secret services in the USA were given the task of analyzing and describing what security policy developments could be feared due to climate change. An initial report, fed by information from numerous US services, was prepared in October 2021 and made available to the public by the office of Intelligence Coordinator Avril Haines.
The report described different scenarios: There is talk of increasing instability and economic hardship in certain countries suffering from extreme climate change, but also of an ongoing battle for access to water sources and the risk of new pandemics. New military situations were also predicted – such as increasing militarization of the Arctic region due to the melting ice caps, which would create new sea routes.
More crises and conflicts feared
American intelligence agencies have concluded that climate change will lead to more crises, escalating conflicts and completely new conflicts between states. “Climate impacts such as excessive heat, flooding and extreme storms will prove increasingly costly, requiring some military shifts and increasing demand for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief,” the report said.
For the BND, too, taking a close look at climate change is not a completely new discipline. Ten years ago, the service analyzed what new developments could be expected in the area of energy supply. According to the prediction at the time, the USA would become increasingly independent of raw material sources in the Middle East through increased use of fracking gas. This will most likely also shift geopolitical interest. At the same time, energy demand in emerging countries is increasing and global warming will increase. “The distribution battle will be about who will be allowed to emit how much CO2 in the future,” according to the BND’s forecast from 2013.
It is still unclear which of the BND’s own findings can contribute to the study now commissioned by the federal government. In the USA, the secret services had made information on this subject available to scientists on several occasions in the past.
CIA has been cooperating with science for decades
As early as October 1992, the CIA began sharing intelligence with scientists through the Medea program. The initiative for this unusual collaboration came from the then US Senator and climate activist Al Gore, who approached the CIA director with the idea and asked that knowledge from the security authorities be made available for research – and even with scientists from the to share the former Soviet Union.
The cooperation was later expanded under US President Bill Clinton. More than 800,000 satellite images that had been taken by the US services and military over the decades were made available to a working group of around 70 scientists from the US and Russia. The recordings helped to understand and research changes in coastal regions, in the Arctic or in mountains.
Until 2021, the CIA even had its own working unit, the Center on Climate Change and National Security, which dealt with security-relevant aspects of climate change. Since February of this year, Professor Kim Cobb from Brown University, a proven expert in climate research, oceanography and paleoclimatology, has also been on the US President’s advisory board for the secret services.